IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/natres/v49y2025i4p3743-3762.html

Surprising renewable energy boom in war‐ravaged Syria: Evidence from structural break analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Siham Matallah
  • Amal Matallah
  • Suleman Sarwar
  • Walid Abdmoulah

Abstract

This paper casts light on Syria's relentless war, which has caused the collapse of national electricity grids and led to recurrent power outages. The main findings indicate that the 2012 war and enduring conflicts that put Syrians in front of a “fait accompli” and forced them to adapt to new, uncongenial, and arduous circumstances unexpectedly encourage renewable energy production and surprisingly expand access to electricity. An increase of 1% in conflicts causes renewable energy production to increase by 9.71% and 5.93% in war‐ravaged Syria in the short and long run, respectively. As a matter of fact, off‐grid renewable solutions proved to be effective in reducing the suffering of Syrians, whose lives were ruined by conflicts and the 2012 war. The results also illustrate that foreign aid can play an undeniably crucial role in making renewable‐generated electricity more accessible and affordable for Syrians. As an inevitable consequence of the US and EU sanctions imposed on the regime of Bashar al‐Assad, Syria is unable to access the foreign aid and international funding it needs to restore its destroyed energy sector, rebuild its damaged electricity infrastructure, and embark on its renewable energy plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Siham Matallah & Amal Matallah & Suleman Sarwar & Walid Abdmoulah, 2025. "Surprising renewable energy boom in war‐ravaged Syria: Evidence from structural break analysis," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 3743-3762, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:49:y:2025:i:4:p:3743-3762
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-8947.12550
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-8947.12550
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1477-8947.12550?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    5. Löschel, Andreas & Moslener, Ulf & Rübbelke, Dirk T.G., 2010. "Indicators of energy security in industrialised countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1665-1671, April.
    6. Al-Mohamad, A & Karmeh, H, 2003. "Wind energy potential in Syria," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1039-1046.
    7. Denis Hayes & John Kadyszewski, 1981. "Third World Energy Options And The Role Of The Solar Energy Research Institute," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 141-156, April.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Kruyt, Bert & van Vuuren, D.P. & de Vries, H.J.M. & Groenenberg, H., 2009. "Indicators for energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2166-2181, June.
    10. Karla G. Cedano & Tiare Robles-Bonilla & Oscar S. Santillán & Manuel Martínez, 2021. "Assessing Energy Poverty in Urban Regions of Mexico: The Role of Thermal Comfort and Bioclimatic Context," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-13, September.
    11. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198759980.
    12. Abre-Rehmat Qurat-ul-Ann & Faisal Mehmood Mirza, 2021. "Determinants of multidimensional energy poverty in Pakistan: a household level analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12366-12410, August.
    13. Derek Lovejoy, 1996. "Are there limits to growth? The need for a transition to a solar‐based economy," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 73-77, February.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    15. Felix Cheung & Amanda Kube & Louis Tay & Edward Diener & Joshua J. Jackson & Richard E. Lucas & Michael Y. Ni & Gabriel M. Leung, 2020. "The impact of the Syrian conflict on population well-being," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Chester, Lynne, 2010. "Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 887-895, February.
    18. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matallah, Siham & Zerigui, Khadidja & Matallah, Amal, 2024. "Renewable energy solutions to the lack of access to electricity in conflict-ridden countries: A case study of Yemen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    2. Matallah, Siham & Boudaoud, Souhila & Matallah, Amal & Ferhaoui, Mustapha, 2023. "The role of fossil fuel subsidies in preventing a jump-start on the transition to renewable energy: Empirical evidence from Algeria," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    3. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2015. "Money Demand Estimations in Mexico and of its Stability 1986-2010, as well as Some Examples of its Uses," Working Papers 2015-13, Banco de México.
    4. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Defence Expenditures And Gdp In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-385.
    5. Gormus, Alper & Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2018. "High-yield bond and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 101-110.
    6. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    7. Aamir Jamal & G. M. Bhat, 2023. "Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(3), pages 449-472, September.
    8. Siddhartha Pradeep, 2022. "Role of monetary policy on CO2 emissions in India," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, January.
    9. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    10. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    11. María Gabriela CUEVA-JIMÉNEZ & Ronny CORREA-QUEZADA & Ana Belén TULCANAZA-PRIETO & Lucía CUEVA-RODRÍGUEZ, 2024. "Crecimiento Económico Y Gasto Militar En El Ecuador: Un Enfoque De Cointegración Y Causalidad, 1960-2019," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 24(1), pages 91-110.
    12. Anh-Tu Nguyen & Shih-Hao Lu & Phuc Thanh Thien Nguyen, 2021. "Validating and Forecasting Carbon Emissions in the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Vietnam," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-38, May.
    13. Orazaliyev Kanat & Zhijun Yan & Muhammad Mansoor Asghar & Syed Anees Haider Zaidi & Abdul Sami, 2024. "Gender Inequality and Poverty: The Role of Financial Development in Mitigating Poverty in Pakistan," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 11848-11876, September.
    14. Abdul Jalil & Samia Manan & Sundus Saleemi, 2016. "Estimating the growth effects of services sector: a cointegration analysis for Pakistan," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, December.
    15. Pourazarm, Elham & Cooray, Arusha, 2013. "Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 546-558.
    16. Nepal, Rabindra & Paija, Nirash, 2019. "Energy security, electricity, population and economic growth: The case of a developing South Asian resource-rich economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 771-781.
    17. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.
    18. Mohamed Maher & Yanzhi Zhao, 2022. "Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 956-979, November.
    19. Sohag, Kazi & Begum, Rawshan Ara & Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed & Jaafar, Mokhtar, 2015. "Dynamics of energy use, technological innovation, economic growth and trade openness in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1497-1507.
    20. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:49:y:2025:i:4:p:3743-3762. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1477-8947 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.