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Can Crime Be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence From a Randomized Experiment in New York

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  • Oludamilare Aboaba
  • Aaron Chalfin
  • Michael LaForest‐Tucker
  • Lucie Parker
  • Patrick Sharkey

Abstract

Can crime be deterred at low cost? We report the results of a randomized experiment of a messaging intervention designed to deter offending among individuals under parole supervision with a prior violent felony conviction or firearm arrest. The intervention consisted of a group meeting in which high‐risk paroled individuals were notified of the sanction they would face upon reoffending while being offered community resources to support re‐integration into the community. The program did not lead to a notable reduction in future arrests or create community spillover effects but did reduce parole violations by 15%. Potential mechanisms and implications for similar programs are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Oludamilare Aboaba & Aaron Chalfin & Michael LaForest‐Tucker & Lucie Parker & Patrick Sharkey, 2026. "Can Crime Be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence From a Randomized Experiment in New York," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(2), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:45:y:2026:i:2:n:e70092
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.70092
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