IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jpamgt/v44y2025i4p1211-1249.html

Have U.S. gun buyback programs misfired?

Author

Listed:
  • Toshio Ferrazares
  • Joseph J. Sabia
  • D. Mark Anderson

Abstract

Gun buyback programs (GBPs), which use public funds to purchase civilians' privately‐owned firearms, aim to reduce gun violence. However, next to nothing is known about their effects on firearm‐related crime or deaths. Using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System, we find no evidence that GBPs reduce gun crime. Given our estimated null findings, with 95% confidence, we can rule out decreases in firearm‐related crime of greater than 1.2% during the year following a buyback. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System, we also find no evidence that GBPs reduce suicides or homicides where a firearm was involved. These results call into question the efficacy of city gun buyback programs in their current form.

Suggested Citation

  • Toshio Ferrazares & Joseph J. Sabia & D. Mark Anderson, 2025. "Have U.S. gun buyback programs misfired?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 1211-1249, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:44:y:2025:i:4:p:1211-1249
    DOI: 10.1002/pam.70045
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.70045
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/pam.70045?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steven D. Levitt, 2004. "Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 163-190, Winter.
    2. Mullin, Wallace P., 2001. "Will gun buyback programs increase the quantity of guns?," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-102, March.
    3. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    4. Jeffrey DeSimone & Sara Markowitz, 2013. "Child Access Prevention Laws and Nonfatal Gun," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 5-25, July.
    5. Wang‐Sheng Lee & Sandy Suardi, 2010. "The Australian Firearms Buyback And Its Effect On Gun Deaths," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(1), pages 65-79, January.
    6. John J. Donohue & Abhay Aneja & Kyle D. Weber, 2019. "Right‐to‐Carry Laws and Violent Crime: A Comprehensive Assessment Using Panel Data and a State‐Level Synthetic Control Analysis," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 198-247, June.
    7. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto, 2021. "Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1197-1221, November.
    8. Irene Botosaru & Bruno Ferman, 2019. "On the role of covariates in the synthetic control method," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 117-130.
    9. Matthew Lang, 2016. "State Firearm Sales and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Firearm Background Checks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 45-68, July.
    10. Baker, J & McPhedran, S, 2007. "Gun laws and sudden death: Did the Australian firearms legislation of 1996 make a difference?," MPRA Paper 40534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Schuster, M.A. & Franke, T.M. & Bastian, A.M. & Sor, S. & Halfon, N., 2000. "Firearm storage patterns in US homes with children," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(4), pages 588-594.
    12. Tang, Cheng Keat & Le, Thao, 2023. "Crime risk and housing values: Evidence from the gun offender registry," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Mark Duggan, 2001. "More Guns, More Crime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1086-1114, October.
    14. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    15. Chalak, Karim & Kim, Daniel & Miller, Megan & Pepper, John, 2022. "Reexamining the evidence on gun ownership and homicide using proxy measures of ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    16. Christine Neill, 2010. "Do Gun Buybacks Save Lives? Evidence from Panel Data," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 12(2), pages 462-508.
    17. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    18. Mark Anderson, D. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Tekin, Erdal, 2021. "Child access prevention laws and juvenile firearm-related homicides," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Danielle H. Sandler & Ryan Sandler, 2014. "Multiple event studies in public finance and labor economics: A simulation study with applications," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, IOS Press, issue 1-2, pages 31-57.
    20. D. Wayne Osgood, 2000. "Poisson-Based Regression Analysis of Aggregate Crime Rates," Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 21-43, March.
    21. repec:ejw:journl:v:6:y:2009:i:2:p:218-238 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Lott, John R, Jr, 1998. "The Concealed-Handgun Debate," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 221-243, January.
    23. Mathew Lang, 2016. "State Firearm Sales and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Firearm Background Checks," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 45-68, July.
    24. Griffin Edwards & Erik Nesson & Joshua J. Robinson & Fredrick Vars, 2018. "Looking Down the Barrel of a Loaded Gun: The Effect of Mandatory Handgun Purchase Delays on Homicide and Suicide," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(616), pages 3117-3140, December.
    25. Cook, Philip J. & Ludwig, Jens, 2006. "The social costs of gun ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-2), pages 379-391, January.
    26. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    27. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    28. Jeffrey DeSimone & Sara Markowitz & Jing Xu, 2013. "Child Access Prevention Laws and Nonfatal Gun Injuries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(1), pages 5-25, July.
    29. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    2. Hadah, Hussain & Compta, Gael & Saffouri, Ali, 2026. "The Effects of Waiting Periods on Firearm Suicides in the U.S," IZA Discussion Papers 18624, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Mark Anderson, D. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Tekin, Erdal, 2021. "Child access prevention laws and juvenile firearm-related homicides," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Johnson, David B. & Robinson, Joshua J. & Semenza, Daniel C. & Thompson, Alexi, 2024. "Where are the guns?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    6. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    7. Ratzanyel Rinc'on & Kyungchul Song, 2025. "Causal Inference with Groupwise Matching," Papers 2510.26106, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    8. Callaway, Brantly & Karami, Sonia, 2023. "Treatment effects in interactive fixed effects models with a small number of time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 184-208.
    9. Justin C. Wiltshire, 2023. "Walmart Supercenters and Monopsony Power: How A Large, Low-Wage Employer Impacts Local Labor Markets," Department Discussion Papers 2304, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    10. Ege Aksu & Charles J. Courtemanche & Dhaval M. Dave & Daniel L. Dench & Michael Grossman & Jooyoung Kim & Selen Ozdogan & Shubhsri Rajendra & Joseph J. Sabia & Henry Saffer, 2025. "The Effect of Online Sales Bans on E-Cigarette Use," NBER Working Papers 34565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:ags:aaea22:335971 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Kim, Youngho, 2023. "Payments for Ecosystem Services Programs and Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335971, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Murilo Cardoso & Bruno Ferman & Marcelo Fernandes, 2026. "Treatment-effect heterogeneity and interactive fixed effects: Can we control for too much?," Papers 2604.27187, arXiv.org.
    14. Youngho Kim, 2024. "Payments for Ecosystem Services Programs and Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture," Economics Series Working Papers 1054, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2022. "Design-based analysis in Difference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 62-79.
    16. Luis Alvarez & Bruno Ferman, 2023. "Extensions for Inference in Difference-in-Differences with Few Treated Clusters," Papers 2302.03131, arXiv.org.
    17. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    18. Michael J. Seiler & Liuming Yang, 2023. "Gun‐ownership disclosure and localized home prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(6), pages 1399-1436, November.
    19. Patrick Duenow & Luke B. Connelly, 2024. "The effect of gun buy‐back law reform on homicides and suicides in Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 248-279, February.
    20. Yan, Wenying & Chen, Yusheng & Wang, Yanmei, 2025. "Efficiency improvement effect of clean energy transformation —A quasi-natural experiment based on China's clean heating policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jpamgt:v:44:y:2025:i:4:p:1211-1249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/34787/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.