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The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it

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  • Alessandro Fergnani
  • Thomas J. Chermack

Abstract

We offer an argumentative explanation of the reasons why the field of futures and foresight has not been successful at becoming part of the social scientific establishment. We contend that the very set of norms, beliefs, and epistemological foundations of futures and foresight are essentially self‐sabotaging as they resist the creation of scientific theory on futures and foresight practices and processes in organizations. Drawing from the tradition of management and organization sciences, we describe what scientific theory in the context of organizations is and is not, and how theory development contributes to the incremental progress of scientific fields. We then unpack the crux of the problem, deconstructing the resistance to scientific theory within our field into nine, closely related reasons. We offer solutions to the problem in the form of three sets of recommendations: for authors, journal editors, and practitioners. We conclude by responding to likely misunderstandings in advance.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Fergnani & Thomas J. Chermack, 2021. "The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:3:y:2021:i:3-4:n:e61
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.61
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    1. Donald C. Hambrick, 1982. "Environmental scanning and organizational strategy," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 159-174, April.
    2. Donald C. Hambrick, 1981. "Specialization Of Environmental Scanning Activities Among Upper Level Executives," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 299-320, July.
    3. Rohrbeck, René & Kum, Menes Etingue, 2018. "Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 105-116.
    4. Alessandro Fergnani & Mike Jackson, 2019. "Extracting scenario archetypes: A quantitative text analysis of documents about the future," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    5. Thomas J. Chermack, 2019. "Response to Spaniol and Rowland: “Defining Scenario”," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(2), June.
    6. Zur Shapira, 2011. "“I've Got a Theory Paper---Do You?”: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(5), pages 1312-1321, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Fergnani, 2023. "Explaining and critiquing the postnormal: A warning against ideologies in the field of futures and foresight," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    2. Aalto, Eljas & Kuosa, Tuomo & Stucki, Max, 2025. "Generating sets of diverse and plausible scenarios through approximated multivariate normal distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 320(1), pages 160-174.
    3. Gerard P. Hodgkinson, 2021. "Why appealing to the virtues of scientific theory (and method) is necessary but insufficient for effecting systemic change: Commentary on Fergnani & Chermack, 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    4. Fraser Reilly‐King & Colleen Duggan & Alex Wilner, 2024. "Foresight and futures thinking for international development co‐operation: Promises and pitfalls," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 42(S1), June.
    5. Brent Mills & Alex Wilner, 2023. "The science behind “values”: Applying moral foundations theory to strategic foresight," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.
    6. Shardul Sharad Phadnis, 2021. "Advancing scenario planning theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack, 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    7. Rick Szostak, 2024. "Restoring democratic stability: A backcasting wheel approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), September.
    8. Gerard P. Hodgkinson, 2022. "The conversation is great, but we need to talk more about theory, emotions, and ‘gut’ feelings: Commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    9. Yusuke Kishita & Toshiki Kusaka & Yuji Mizuno & Yasushi Umeda, 2021. "Toward theory development in futures and foresight by drawing on design theory: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    10. James Derbyshire & Mandeep Dhami & Ian Belton & Dilek Önkal, 2023. "The value of experiments in futures and foresight science as illustrated by the case of scenario planning," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), June.
    11. Alessandro Fergnani & John A. Sweeney, 2021. "Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    12. Ahti Salo, 2021. "Developing the needed scientific theory will not be easy: A commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    13. Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 2021. "Theory development in foresight research: Commentary on Fergnani and Chermack 2021," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    14. Alessandro Fergnani & Thomas J. Chermack, 2021. "Toward a science of futures and foresight: Response to 10 experts' commentaries," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.

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