IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/emetrp/v93y2025i5p1561-1599.html

Can Trade Policy Mitigate Climate Change?

Author

Listed:
  • Farid Farrokhi
  • Ahmad Lashkaripour

Abstract

Trade policy is often cast as a solution to the free‐riding problem in international climate agreements. This paper examines the extent to which trade policy can deliver on this promise. We incorporate global supply chains of carbon and climate externalities into a multi‐country, multi‐industry general equilibrium trade model. By deriving theoretical formulas for optimal carbon and border taxes, we quantify the maximum efficacy of two trade policy solutions to the free‐riding problem. Adding optimal carbon border taxes to existing tariffs proves largely ineffective, delivering only 3.4% of what could be achieved under globally optimal carbon pricing. In contrast, Nordhaus's (2015) climate club framework, in which border taxes are used as contingent penalties to deter free‐riding, can achieve 33–68% of the globally optimal carbon reduction, depending on the initial coalition (EU, EU + US, or EU + US + China). In all cases, the climate club ensures universal compliance, thereby preserving free trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Farid Farrokhi & Ahmad Lashkaripour, 2025. "Can Trade Policy Mitigate Climate Change?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(5), pages 1561-1599, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:93:y:2025:i:5:p:1561-1599
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20153
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3982/ECTA20153?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka, 2017. "Carbon tariffs: An analysis of the trade, welfare, and emission effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 195-213.
    2. Robert W. Staiger, 2021. "A World Trading System for the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 28947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rodrigo Adão & Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson, 2025. "Putting Quantitative Models to the Test: An Application to the U.S.-China Trade War," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(2), pages 1471-1524.
    4. Caliendo, Lorenzo & Feenstra, Robert C., 2024. "Foundation of the small open economy model with product differentiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Joseph S Shapiro, 2021. "The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 831-886.
    6. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    8. Ahmad Lashkaripour & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2023. "Profits, Scale Economies, and the Gains from Trade and Industrial Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(10), pages 2759-2808, October.
    9. Lashkaripour, Ahmad, 2021. "The cost of a global tariff war: A sufficient statistics approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Why Is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3814-3854, December.
    11. Dixit, Avinash, 1985. "Tax policy in open economies," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 313-374, Elsevier.
    12. Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
    13. Ralph Ossa, 2014. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4104-4146, December.
    14. Jevan Cherniwchan & Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2017. "Trade and the Environment: New Methods, Measurements, and Results," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 59-85, September.
    15. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    16. Ahmad Lashkaripour & Mostafa Beshkar, 2020. "The Cost of Dissolving the WTO: The Role of Global Value Chains," CAEPR Working Papers 2020-005 Classification-, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    17. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "International Externalities And Optimal Tax Structures," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 16, pages 341-355, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Farrokhi, Farid, 2020. "Global sourcing in oil markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Renaud Bourlès & Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2026. "Should we stop the COPs ?," Working Papers hal-05551080, HAL.
    2. Sauvé, Edwige, 2026. "Digital Ecosystems and Data Regulation," TSE Working Papers 131492, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Alessia Camplomi & Harald Fadinger & Chiara Forlati & Sabine Stillger & Ulrich J. Wagner, 2024. "Designing Effective Carbon Border Adjustment with Minimal Information Requirements: Theory and Evidence," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_495v3, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany, revised Jul 2025.
    4. Dolphin, Geoffroy & Ferrucci, Gianluigi, 2026. "The EU’s CBAM: implications for member states and trading partners," Working Paper Series 3177, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka, 2017. "Carbon tariffs: An analysis of the trade, welfare, and emission effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 195-213.
    2. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Duan, Yuwan & Ji, Ting & Lu, Yi & Wang, Siying, 2021. "Environmental regulations and international trade: A quantitative economic analysis of world pollution emissions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Javier Flórez Mendoza & Oliver Reiter & Robert Stehrer, 2024. "EU carbon border tax: General equilibrium effects on income and emissions," wiiw Working Papers 254, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Wanner,Joschka & WATABE,Yuta, 2025. "Multinational Production, Trade, and Carbon Emissions," IDE Discussion Papers 965, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    6. Robin Sogalla & Joschka Wanner & Yuta Watabe, 2024. "New Trade Models, Same Old Emissions?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11596, CESifo.
    7. Klotz, Richard & Sharma, Rishi R., 2023. "Trade barriers and CO2," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Robin Sogalla & Joschka Wanner & Yuta Watabe, 2024. "New Trade Models, Same Old Emissions?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2077, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Watabe,Yuta & Sogalla,Robin & Wanner,Joschka, 2024. "New Trade Models, Same Old Emissions?," IDE Discussion Papers 926, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    10. Yuan Mei, 2024. "Regulatory Protection And The Role Of International Cooperation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 817-850, May.
    11. Sogalla, Robin & Wanner, Joschka & Watabe, Yuta, 2024. "New trade models, same old emissions?," Kiel Working Papers 2267, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    12. Ma. Joy V. Abrenica & Anthony G. Sabarillo, 2024. "How might China-US industrial policies affect the Philippines?: a quantitative exercise," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 61(2), pages 171-198, December.
    13. Mahlkow, Hendrik & Wanner, Joschka, 2023. "The carbon footprint of global trade imbalances," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 108, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    14. Mahlkow, Hendrik & Wanner, Joschka, 2023. "The carbon footprint of global trade imbalances," Kiel Working Papers 2260, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    15. Sugata Marjit & Arijit Mukherjee, 2023. "Low tariff on dirty goods—Environmental negligence or environmental concern?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1246-1270, September.
    16. Gabriel Felbermayr & Sonja Peterson & Joschka Wanner, 2022. "The Impact of Trade and Trade Policy on the Environment and the Climate. A Review," WIFO Working Papers 649, WIFO.
    17. Kwon, Ohyun & Zhao, Hao & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2023. "Global firms and emissions: Investigating the dual channels of emissions abatement," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    18. Stefano Carattini & Hanwei Huang & Frank Pisch & Tejendra Pratap Singh, 2025. "Trade and the Scopes of Pollution: Evidence from China’s World Market Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 12119, CESifo.
    19. Lashkaripour, Ahmad, 2021. "The cost of a global tariff war: A sufficient statistics approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Campolmi, Alessia & Fadinger, Harald & Forlati, Chiara & Stillger, Sabine & Wagner, Ulrich, 2023. "Designing Effective Carbon Border Adjustment with Minimal Information Requirements. Theory and Empirics," CEPR Discussion Papers 18645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:93:y:2025:i:5:p:1561-1599. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.