IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/emetrp/v92y2024i1p29-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drilling Deadlines and Oil and Gas Development

Author

Listed:
  • Evan Herrnstadt
  • Ryan Kellogg
  • Eric Lewis

Abstract

Oil and gas leases between mineral owners and extraction firms typically specify a date by which the firm must either drill a well or lose the lease. These deadlines are known as primary terms. Using data from the Louisiana shale boom, we first show that well drilling is substantially bunched just before the primary term deadline. This bunching is not necessarily surplus‐reducing: using an estimated model of firms' drilling and input choices, we show that primary terms can increase total surplus by countering the effects of leases' royalties, as royalties are a tax on revenue and delay drilling. These benefits are reduced, however, when production outcomes are sensitive to drilling inputs and when drilling one well indefinitely extends the period of time during which additional wells may be drilled. We enrich the model to consider mineral owners' lease offers and find small effects of primary terms on owners' revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Herrnstadt & Ryan Kellogg & Eric Lewis, 2024. "Drilling Deadlines and Oil and Gas Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(1), pages 29-60, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:92:y:2024:i:1:p:29-60
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA18436
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18436
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3982/ECTA18436?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaiser, Mark J., 2012. "Profitability assessment of Haynesville shale gas wells," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 315-330.
    2. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2010. "Investment in Energy Infrastructure and the Tax Code," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 1-33, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Tirole, Jean, 1986. "Using Cost Observation to Regulate Firms," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 614-641, June.
    4. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    5. Erik P. Gilje & Elena Loutskina & Daniel Murphy, 2020. "Drilling and Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1287-1325, June.
    6. Li, Qi & Stengos, Thanasis, 1996. "Semiparametric estimation of partially linear panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 389-397.
    7. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    8. Thomas R. Covert & Richard L. Sweeney, 2023. "Relinquishing Riches: Auctions versus Informal Negotiations in Texas Oil and Gas Leasing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 628-663, March.
    9. Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2013. "Auctions with contingent payments — An overview," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 666-675.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evan M. Herrnstadt & Ryan Kellogg & Eric Lewis, 2020. "The Economics of Time-Limited Development Options: The Case of Oil and Gas Leases," Working Papers 2020-66, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    2. Laurent Lamy & Manasa Patnam & Michael Visser, 2023. "Distinguishing incentive from selection effects in auction-determined contracts," Post-Print hal-04382099, HAL.
    3. John Asker & Allan Collard-Wexler & Jan De Loecker, 2017. "Market Power, Production (Mis)Allocation and OPEC," NBER Working Papers 23801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lamy, Laurent & Patnam, Manasa & Visser, Michael, 2023. "Distinguishing incentive from selection effects in auction-determined contracts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1172-1202.
    5. Gholam R. Amin & Mustapha Ibn Boamah, 2021. "A two‐stage inverse data envelopment analysis approach for estimating potential merger gains in the US banking sector," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1454-1465, September.
    6. Rahul Deb & Debasis Mishra, 2013. "Implementation with securities," Discussion Papers 13-05, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    7. Nicholas Bloom & Stephen J. Davis & Lucia Foster & Brian Lucking & Scott Ohlmacher & Itay Saporta Eksten, 2020. "Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty," Working Papers 2020-181, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    8. Victor Aguirregabiria, 2006. "Another Look at the Identification of Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes: With an Application to Retirement Behavior," 2006 Meeting Papers 169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Ensar Yılmaz & Zeynep Kaplan, 2022. "Heterogeneity of market power: firm-level evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1207-1228, May.
    10. Jose Asturias & Manuel García-Santana & Roberto Ramos, 2019. "Competition and the Welfare Gains from Transportation Infrastructure: Evidence from the Golden Quadrilateral of India," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1881-1940.
    11. Sokbae Lee & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2009. "Testing for Stochastic Monotonicity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 585-602, March.
    12. Andrés César & Guillermo Falcone, 2020. "Heterogeneous Effects of Chinese Import Competition on Chilean Manufacturing Plants," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-60, December.
    13. Kuosmanen, Natalia & Valmari, Nelli, 2023. "Renewal of Companies Through Product Switching," ETLA Working Papers 104, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    14. Tybout, James R. & Westbrook, M. Daniel, 1995. "Trade liberalization and the dimensions of efficiency change in Mexican manufacturing industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 53-78, August.
    15. Giovanni Calice & Levent Kutlu & Ming Zeng, 2021. "Understanding US firm efficiency and its asset pricing implications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 803-827, February.
    16. Dionne, G. & Doherty, N., 1991. "Adverse Selection In Insurance Markets: A Selective Survey," Cahiers de recherche 9105, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    17. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    18. Perez-Castrillo, David & Riedinger, Nicolas, 2004. "Auditing cost overrun claims," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 267-285, June.
    19. John Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1999. "Gross job flows between plants and industries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-64.
    20. Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Tselios, Vassilis & Winkler, Deborah & Farole, Thomas, 2013. "Geography and the Determinants of Firm Exports in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 225-240.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:92:y:2024:i:1:p:29-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.