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Bias and Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecasts: An Evaluation of the Impact of Auditing

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  • BRUCE J. MCCONOMY

Abstract

This paper assesses how the bias and accuracy of managers' earnings forecasts in prospectuses were affected by a 1989 regulation that required the forecasts to be audited by public accountants. Theory suggests that auditors' association with the forecasts would reduce positive (optimistic) bias, by reducing moral hazard. Regulators expected that the audit requirement would also improve the accuracy of the forecasts. Both predictions were tested using management earnings forecasts disclosed in prospectuses of Canadian initial public offerings. The results show that audited forecasts contained significantly less positive bias than reviewed forecasts, but there was only a marginally significant improvement in accuracy.

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  • Bruce J. Mcconomy, 1998. "Bias and Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecasts: An Evaluation of the Impact of Auditing," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 167-195, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:15:y:1998:i:2:p:167-195
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1998.tb00554.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Schleicher & Martin Walker, 2010. "Bias in the tone of forward‐looking narratives," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 371-390.
    2. Denis Cormier & Daniel Coulombe & Luania Gomez Gutierrez & Bruce J. Mcconomy, 2018. "Firms in Transition: A Review of the Venture Capital, IPO, and M&A Literature," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 9-88, March.
    3. Ravi Lonkani & Michael Firth, 2005. "The accuracy of IPO earnings forecasts in Thailand and their relationships with stock market valuation," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 269-286.
    4. Christensen, Brant & Lei, Lijun (Gillian) & Shu, Sydney Qing & Thomas, Wayne, 2023. "Does audit regulation improve the underlying information used by managers? Evidence from PCAOB inspection access and management forecast accuracy," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Sun, Jerry & Liu, Guoping, 2009. "The impact of the CSRC Regulation No. 12-1996 on the credibility of Chinese IPO earnings forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 165-179.
    6. Beng Soon Chong & Kim Wai Ho, 2007. "Lockup and Voluntary Earnings Forecast Disclosure in IPOs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 63-80, September.
    7. Jelic, Ranko & Saadouni, Brahim & Briston, Richard, 2001. "Performance of Malaysian IPOs: Underwriters reputation and management earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 457-486, November.
    8. Jae B. Kim, 2016. "Accounting flexibility and managers’ forecast behavior prior to seasoned equity offerings," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1361-1400, December.
    9. Jean Bédard & Daniel Coulombe & Lucie Courteau, 2008. "Audit Committee, Underpricing of IPOs, and Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecasts," Corporate Governance: An International Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 519-535, November.
    10. Jean Bédard & Daniel Coulombe & Lucie Courteau, 2016. "The Credibility of Earnings Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses and Underpricing," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 235-267, December.
    11. DeFond, Mark & Zhang, Jieying, 2014. "A review of archival auditing research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 275-326.
    12. Dobler, Michael, 2008. "Incentives for risk reporting -- A discretionary disclosure and cheap talk approach," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 184-206.
    13. Vijay Jog & Bruce J. McConomy, 2003. "Voluntary Disclosure of Management Earnings Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1‐2), pages 125-168, January.

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