IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/canjec/v55y2022is1p115-134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short‐term impact of COVID‐19 on consumption spending and its underlying mechanisms: Evidence from Singapore

Author

Listed:
  • Seonghoon Kim
  • Kanghyock Koh
  • Xuan Zhang

Abstract

We examine the short‐term impact of COVID‐19 on consumption spending and its underlying mechanisms using individual‐level monthly panel data from Singapore. Although Singapore's case fatality rate was one of the lowest in the world in the early stage of the pandemic (0.05%), we find that the COVID‐19 pandemic reduced household consumption spending by almost one quarter at its peak, with a larger response from households with above‐median wealth. We show that the reduction in consumption spending is associated with the nationwide lockdown policy, heightened economic uncertainty and reduced income. In addition, we find a substantial increase in monthly savings among households without income losses, suggesting a substantial rebound in consumption spending after the lifting of the lockdown. The results from June 2020 confirm this conjecture, as we find that consumption spending rebounded by about 10 percentage points in that month. Incidence de la COVID‐19 à court terme sur les dépenses de consommation et leurs mécanismes sous‐jacents : l’exemple de Singapour. À l'aide de données de panel mensuelles recueillies au niveau individuel, nous analysons l'impact de la COVID‐19 à court terme sur les dépenses de consommation et leurs mécanismes sous‐jacents à Singapour. Bien que le taux de létalité dans le pays ait été l'un des plus faibles au monde au début de la pandémie (0,05 %), nous avons observé une diminution de la consommation des ménages de près de 25 % lors du pic épidémique avec une réaction plus importante des foyers à revenus supérieurs à la médiane. Nous montrons que la baisse des dépenses de consommation est corrélée à la politique de confinement du pays, au contexte économique de plus en plus incertain et à la baisse des revenus. Nous constatons également que la baisse des revenus ne constitue vraisemblablement pas le facteur moteur dans la diminution globale de la consommation. En outre, nous observons une augmentation substantielle de l’épargne mensuelle des foyers n'ayant pas subi de perte de revenus, laissant entrevoir un net rebond des dépenses dès la levée du confinement. Les données de juin 2020 confirment cette hypothèse puisque les dépenses de consommation ont augmenté d'environ 10 % au cours de ce même mois.

Suggested Citation

  • Seonghoon Kim & Kanghyock Koh & Xuan Zhang, 2022. "Short‐term impact of COVID‐19 on consumption spending and its underlying mechanisms: Evidence from Singapore," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 115-134, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:55:y:2022:i:s1:p:115-134
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12538
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12538
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/caje.12538?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2016. "Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(2), pages 373-399.
    3. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    4. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    5. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2008. "Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1887-1921, December.
    6. Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2022. "Consumer responses to the COVID‐19 crisis: evidence from bank account transaction data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(4), pages 905-929, October.
    7. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    8. Scott R Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 834-862.
    9. Surico, Paolo & Känzig, Diego & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem, 2020. "Consumption in the time of Covid-19: Evidence from UK transaction data," CEPR Discussion Papers 14733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Haeil & Kim, Jun Hyung & Hong, Gihyeon, 2023. "Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on single-person households in South Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Huang, Naqun & Pang, Jindong & Yang, Yanmin, 2023. "JUE Insight: COVID-19 and household preference for urban density in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Gordon Betcherman & Nicholas Giannakopoulos & Ioannis Laliotis & Ioanna Pantelaiou & Mauro Testaverde & Giannis Tzimas, 2023. "The short-term impact of the 2020 pandemic lockdown on employment in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1273-1307, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kubota, So & Onishi, Koichiro & Toyama, Yuta, 2021. "Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1-17.
    2. John Gathergood & Fabian Gunzinger & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Edika Quispe-Torreblanca & Neil Stewart, 2020. "Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending," Papers 2012.09336, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    3. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
    5. Hackethal, Andreas & Weber, Annika, 2020. "Fiscal policies and household consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic: A review of early evidence," SAFE White Paper Series 76, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    6. John Gathergood & Benedict Guttman-Kenney, 2020. "The English Patient: Evaluating Local Lockdowns Using Real-Time COVID-19 & Consumption Data," Papers 2010.04129, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    7. Jaravel, Xavier & O'Connell, Martin, 2020. "Real-time price indices: Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. David Bounie & Youssouf Camara & John Galbraith, 2020. "Consumers’ Mobility, Expenditure and Online-Offline Substitution Response to COVID-19: Evidence from French Transaction Data," Cahiers de recherche 14-2020, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    9. Martin O'Connell & Áureo de Paula & Kate Smith, 2021. "Preparing for a pandemic: spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID‐19 first wave," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 249-264, June.
    10. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Matthew N. White, 2021. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 107-141, March.
    11. Hacıoğlu-Hoke, Sinem & Känzig, Diego R. & Surico, Paolo, 2021. "The distributional impact of the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Santiago E. Alvarez & Sarah M. Lein, 2020. "Tracking inflation on a daily basis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-13, December.
    13. Maximiliano Gómez Aguirre & Ariel David Krysa, 2023. "Consumer Loans Dynamics in 2020 in Argentina: An Approach Using Error Correction Models," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(81), pages 111-158, May.
    14. O’Connell, Martin & Smith, Kate & Stroud, Rebekah, 2022. "The dietary impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Pandemic Shocks and Household Spending," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 273-299, April.
    16. David Finck & Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Pandemic Shocks and Household Spending," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202036, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Kim, Seonghoon & Koh, Kanghyock & Zhang, Xuan, 2020. "Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Consumption and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Singapore," IZA Discussion Papers 13354, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    19. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    20. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2024. "A regional input-output model of the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 100-130, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:55:y:2022:i:s1:p:115-134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1540-5982 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.