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Climate Change Agricultural Comparative Advantage and the US Trade Balance

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth A. Fraysse
  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Roman Keeney

Abstract

Current science indicates that warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 will have ambiguous results for crop productivity depending on crop type and geographic location, whereas increased heat stress makes livestock and human labor less productive. The differential impacts across regions will alter comparative advantage and shift the patterns of global trade. This paper employs an economywide trade model to assess all three types of productivity shocks under a 3°C global warming scenario. We find that the widening agricultural trade deficits persist, even as the overall US trade balance improves due to enhanced investment inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth A. Fraysse & Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney, 2026. "Climate Change Agricultural Comparative Advantage and the US Trade Balance," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(2), pages 473-486, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:48:y:2026:i:2:p:473-486
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.70041
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2009. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 895-909.
    2. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Cory Smith, 2016. "Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 205-248.
    3. Hertel, Thomas W. & de Lima, Cicero Z., 2020. "Viewpoint: Climate impacts on agriculture: Searching for keys under the streetlight," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Rob Dellink & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe & Bert Saveyn, 2020. "Shaping Baseline Scenarios of Economic Activity with CGE Models: Introduction to the Special Issue," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 1-27, June.
    5. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin Corong & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2022. "The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base: Version 11," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 7(2), pages 1-37, December.
    6. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Hertel, Thomas & Burke, Marshall & Lobell, David, 2010. "The Poverty Implications of Climate-Induced Crop Yield Changes by 2030," GTAP Working Papers 3196, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    8. Gouel, Christophe & Laborde, David, 2021. "The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
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