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Interests, Institutions, and the Reliability of International Commitments

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  • Brett Ashley Leeds
  • Michaela Mattes
  • Jeremy S. Vogel

Abstract

One feature associated with democratic governance is frequent leadership turnover. While the ease of replacing leaders improves accountability, it may impede the ability of democracies to make credible long‐term international commitments. Using newly collected data that identify cases in which leaders who derive their support from different domestic interests come to power, we evaluate the effects of changes in domestic political leadership on one important aspect of foreign policy—decisions to maintain military alliances. An analysis covering bilateral alliances between 1919 and 2001 reveals that changes in societal supporting coalitions in nondemocratic states are associated with decisions to abrogate alliances prior to their scheduled end dates, but changes in societal supporting coalitions in democracies have no effect on the probability of premature alliance termination. We conclude that international cooperation is sensitive to changes in core supporting coalitions, but that this effect is moderated by democratic political institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Brett Ashley Leeds & Michaela Mattes & Jeremy S. Vogel, 2009. "Interests, Institutions, and the Reliability of International Commitments," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 461-476, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:53:y:2009:i:2:p:461-476
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00381.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erik Gartzke & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2004. "Why Democracies May Actually Be Less Reliable Allies," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 775-795, October.
    2. Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor, 1996. "Democratic states and commitment in international relations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 109-139, January.
    3. Edward D. Mansfield & Helen V. Milner & B. Peter Rosendorff, 2015. "Why Democracies Cooperate More: Electoral Control and International Trade Agreements," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Edward D Mansfield (ed.), THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE, chapter 11, pages 227-263, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Brett Ashley Leeds & Sezi Anac, 2005. "Alliance Institutionalization and Alliance Performance," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-202, July.
    5. Narizny, Kevin, 2003. "Both Guns and Butter, or Neither: Class Interests in the Political Economy of Rearmament," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 203-220, May.
    6. Leeds, Brett Ashley, 2003. "Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 801-827, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeehye Kim & Jiyoung Ko, 2020. "To condone, condemn, or ‘no comment’? Explaining a patron’s reaction to a client’s unilateral provocations," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 452-465, May.
    2. John Conybeare & Dong-Hun Kim, 2010. "Democracy, Institutionalization, and Corporate Alliances," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(5), pages 715-744, October.
    3. Asif Efrat & Abraham L. Newman, 2018. "Divulging data: Domestic determinants of international information sharing," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 395-419, September.
    4. Talya Bobick & Alastair Smith, 2013. "The impact of leader turnover on the onset and the resolution of WTO disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 423-445, December.
    5. Brandon J Kinne, 2013. "IGO membership, network convergence, and credible signaling in militarized disputes," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 50(6), pages 659-676, November.
    6. Amanda A Licht, 2022. "Introducing Regular Turnover Details, 1960–2015: A dataset on world leaders’ legal removal from office," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 277-285, March.
    7. Aaron Rapport & Brian Rathbun, 2021. "Parties to an alliance: Ideology and the domestic politics of international institutionalization," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(2), pages 279-293, March.
    8. Casper Sakstrup, 2021. "What’s going on next door? Irregular leader change in neighboring countries, uncertainty, and civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 539-553, May.
    9. Jesse C Johnson & Stephen Joiner, 2021. "Power changes, alliance credibility, and extended deterrence," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(2), pages 178-199, March.
    10. Olga Chyzh, 2014. "Can you trust a dictator: A strategic model of authoritarian regimes’ signing and compliance with international treaties," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 3-27, February.

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