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Is yield response enough? Drought impacts on crop acreage throughout the production cycle

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Listed:
  • Erin Sumner
  • Minghao Li
  • Yau‐Huo (Jimmy) Shr

Abstract

Climate change is amplifying the threat of drought to food security. Despite a growing literature examining how drought affects crop yield, previous studies have mostly overlooked the impacts of drought on production through planting and harvesting decisions, which are crucial climate adaptation strategies for farmers. To address this gap, we study corn and soybean production in U.S. counties from 2001 to 2023, examining drought impacts on acreage decisions—planned acres, prevented planting, crop abandonment—and yield within a unified framework. Decomposition analysis shows that, together, acreage decisions account for up to 25% and 20% of drought impacts on corn and soybean production, respectively. Moreover, drought affects production throughout the crop year, not solely during the growing season. Specifications that omit preplanting‐ and planting‐season drought underestimate the adverse impacts of growing‐season drought on the harvested ratio, yield, and production of corn and soybeans. Our findings highlight the importance of considering adaptive behavioral responses when quantifying climate‐related damage in agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Erin Sumner & Minghao Li & Yau‐Huo (Jimmy) Shr, 2026. "Is yield response enough? Drought impacts on crop acreage throughout the production cycle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 108(2), pages 542-565, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:108:y:2026:i:2:p:542-565
    DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12549
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    References listed on IDEAS

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