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A farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model of pork-borne salmonellosis in humans: Lessons for risk ranking


  • Paul E. McNamara

    (Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics and Division of Nutrition, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801)

  • Gay Y. Miller

    (Departments of Veterinary Pathobiology and Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61802)

  • Xuanli Liu

    (Agricultural Research Station, Fort Valley State University, Fort Valley, GA 31030)

  • David A. Barber

    (Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Springfield, IL 62704)


A food systems perspective offers many appealing analytic features to food safety researchers with an interest in the design and targeting of effective and efficient policy responses to the risks posed by foodborne pathogens. These features include the ability to examine comparative questions such as whether it is more efficient to target food safety interventions on-farm or in the food processing plant. Using the example of a farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model of Salmonella in the pork production and consumption system, the authors argue the feasibility of such a food systems approach for food-safety risk assessment and policy analysis. They present an overview of the farm-to-fork model and highlight key assumptions and methods employed. Lessons from their experience in constructing a farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model are derived for consideration in other food safety risk assessment efforts and for researchers interested in developing “best practice” benchmarks in the area of food safety risk assessments. [EconLit Citations: Q18, I18, I12]. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 23: 157-172, 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul E. McNamara & Gay Y. Miller & Xuanli Liu & David A. Barber, 2007. "A farm-to-fork stochastic simulation model of pork-borne salmonellosis in humans: Lessons for risk ranking," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 157-172.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:23:y:2007:i:2:p:157-172
    DOI: 10.1002/agr.20115

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Buzby, Jean C. & Roberts, Tanya & Lin, Chung-Tung Jordan & MacDonald, James M., 1996. "Bacterial Foodborne Disease: Medical Costs and Productivity Losses," Agricultural Economics Reports 33991, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. McNamara, Paul E. & Liu, Xuanli & Miller, Gay Y., 2003. "The Costs of Human Salmonellosis Attributable to Pork: A Stochastic Farm-to-Fork Analysis," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22023, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    Cited by:

    1. Marie-Josée J. Mangen & G. Ardine de Wit & Arie H. Havelaar, 2007. "Economic analysis of Campylobacter control in the dutch broiler meat chain," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 173-192.

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