IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wfo/monber/y2001i10p623-629.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Scenarios up to 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Kurt Kratena

Abstract

On the basis of its model of energy demand and conversion in Austria (DAEDALUS III), WIFO simulated three scenarios to establish a long-term forecast of the development of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The baseline scenario assumes a continuation of current developments, while the Kyoto scenario reflects the effects of the Austrian strategy to counteract climate change. The sustainability scenario is based on the adoption of international approaches to implement socially compatible measures aimed at minimising energy consumption and accelerating technological progress. Under the "baseline scenario", the consumption of fuels, electricity and gas continues to increase. This development, combined with a rising volume of electricity generation by thermal power plants, results in an increase of CO2 emissions by about 3.2 million tons per year until 2010. The "Kyoto scenario" reflects the Austrian strategy of preventing climate change, which provides for an increase in energy efficiency and greater reliance on renewable sources of energy, the goal being to diminish the level of CO2 emissions by about 13 million tons against baseline by 2010. The "sustainability scenario" simulates the effects of a socially compatible reduction of energy services and an accelerated pace of innovation and technology diffusion. Until 2010, energy consumption and CO2 emissions decrease by more or less the same amounts as under the Kyoto scenario, but by 2020 CO2 emissions drop to 63 percent of the year-2000 level. Both the Kyoto scenario and the sustainability scenario are associated with substantial costs, as they require a diversion of resources, but GDP and employment are higher than in the baseline scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurt Kratena, 2001. "Energy Scenarios up to 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(10), pages 623-629, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2001:i:10:p:623-629
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/20613
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Payment required

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Commission on Environment and Development,, 1987. "Our Common Future," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192820808.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2001:i:10:p:623-629. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilse Schulz). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.