Geopolitics and Energy Transition from Dependence to Autonomy: The Comparative Case of the Republic of Moldova and Romania

This study examines how the global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is reshaping geopolitical power dynamics, using Romania and the Republic of Moldova as comparative case studies. It explores whether the energy transition disperses power or reconfigures it spatially, economically, and institutionally through a qualitative framework integrating energy geography, energy economics, and geopolitics. Based on historical analysis and policy discourse interpretation, the research shows that while the decentralized nature of renewable energy weakens traditional geographic monopolies over fossil resources, new forms of dependence are emerging around critical raw materials, clean technologies, financial capital, and regulatory regimes. These dynamics form a “technology–capital–rules” network that intensifies competition over technological sovereignty and institutional access. As a result, geopolitical influence is shifting from the control of pipelines and fuel supply routes to instruments such as carbon tariffs, green standards, and regulatory frameworks, creating new patterns of “weaponized interdependence” within global green supply chains. The comparison of Romania and R. Moldova further demonstrates that, despite different institutional trajectories, both countries have relied on EU frameworks to manage energy crises and accelerate energy transition— R. Moldova converging toward EU norms and Romania strengthening its energy resilience and regional role— offering insights for both EU candidate states and member states navigating the evolving geopolitics of the energy transition.