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What is the Nature of the Dynamics between Government Spending and Aggregate Output in the Nordic Countries?

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  • Senekovič Marko

    (Assistant at the Department of Political Economy and a PhD Student at the University of Maribor, Faculty of Economics and Business, Slovenia)

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between government consumption and aggregate output in five Nordic countries in two different scenarios: first, in periods when government consumption increases and, second, in periods when government consumption decreases. Therefore, the nonlinear ARDL model is applied to test for the presence of a short-run and long-run asymmetry in output response to government consumption. The key findings are as follows. First, based on the linear model, a positive connection between government consumption and economic activity has been confirmed, both in the short and long term, which is also in line with the predictions of economic theory. Second, based on the nonlinear model, six out of ten short-term coefficients are statistically significant, as are six out of ten long-term coefficients, with statistically significant asymmetry detected in four out of ten cases. Thus, estimated test statistics and graphical analysis suggest the presence of a negatively inclined asymmetry in the relationship between government consumption and the dynamic of aggregate output with stronger output response in periods when government consumption decreases.

Suggested Citation

  • Senekovič Marko, 2022. "What is the Nature of the Dynamics between Government Spending and Aggregate Output in the Nordic Countries?," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 68(1), pages 1-13, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ngooec:v:68:y:2022:i:1:p:1-13:n:5
    DOI: 10.2478/ngoe-2022-0001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; Nordic countries; nonlinear ARDL model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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