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Empirical Evaluation of the Fiscal Position in Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Đurović-Todorović Jadranka

    () (University of Nis, Faculty of Economics, Republic of Serbia)

  • Vuković Marija

    () (Novi Sad Business School, Novi Sad)

Abstract

The paper evaluates the size of the cyclical and structural components of the fiscal deficit of the Republic of Serbia for the period from the first quarter of 2002 to the second quarter of 2014. The method of the European Central Bank was used, where it is assumed that cyclically sensitive elements of state are budget income tax, profit tax, value added tax on the value, excises, social security contributions and unemployment benefits. Elasticity of cyclically sensitive elements relative to their macroeconomic bases are estimated using the VEC model with error correction. The results suggest that automatic stabilizers generally played a more prominent role than consistent countercyclical discretionary fiscal policy, which means that the discretionary measures were late or were not well targeted.

Suggested Citation

  • Đurović-Todorović Jadranka & Vuković Marija, 2016. "Empirical Evaluation of the Fiscal Position in Serbia," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 54(2), pages 217-232, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecothe:v:54:y:2016:i:2:p:217-232:n:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "Fiscal policy in developing countries : a framework and some questions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4365, The World Bank.
    2. Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    3. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
    4. Milojko Arsić & Aleksandra Nojković & Saša Ranđelović, 2013. "Would Economic Recovery Imply Fiscal Stabilization In Serbia?," Serbian Association of Economists Journal, SAE - Serbian Association of Economists, issue 3-4, pages 222-237, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cyclic deficit; structural deficit; GDP;

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