IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/econom/v13y2025i1p179-196n1009.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Morocco’s Economic Prospects: A Dynamic ARDL Simulation on Global Value Chain Integration

Author

Listed:
  • Moussir Charaf-Eddine

    (Mohammed V University, Faculty of Law, Economics, and Social Sciences (FSJES-Souissi), Morocco)

Abstract

This paper examines how Morocco’s integration into global value chains (GVCs) impacts its economic development, addressing a critical gap in the literature on developing economies. While GVCs have transformed international trade over the past two decades and created new industrialisation opportunities, their developmental impact varies significantly across countries. Building on previous research, our study fills a significant gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of Morocco’s GVC participation using a dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulation methodology from 1990 to 2018, examining the relationship between various GVC integration measures and GDP per capita. The empirical analysis reveals three key findings : backward linkages through foreign value added in exports drive long-term economic development ; domestic value added in exports generates significant positive long-run growth effects ; and forward linkages through indirect value added in exports produce both short-run and long-run economic benefits. These results demonstrate that Morocco’s strategic GVC integration has been fundamental to its economic development. In light of these findings, policy implications are drawn to enhance Morocco’s global competitiveness and optimize development benefits through targeted GVC participation strategies. The research emphasizes how balanced integration across different value chain linkages promotes sustainable economic growth in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Moussir Charaf-Eddine, 2025. "Morocco’s Economic Prospects: A Dynamic ARDL Simulation on Global Value Chain Integration," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 179-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:econom:v:13:y:2025:i:1:p:179-196:n:1009
    DOI: 10.2478/eoik-2025-0009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2025-0009
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/eoik-2025-0009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Soren Jordan & Andrew Q. Philips, 2018. "Cointegration testing and dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag modelsJournal: Stata Journal," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 18(4), pages 902-923, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Li & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael & Lv, Kangjuan, 2022. "How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    2. Ullah, Sami & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Harnessing the synergistic impacts of financial structure, industrialization, and ecological footprint through the lens of the EKC hypothesis. Insights from Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    3. Sohag, Kazi & Sokhanvar, Amin & Belyaeva, Zhanna & Mirnezami, Seyed Reza, 2022. "Hydrocarbon prices shocks, fiscal stability and consolidation: Evidence from Russian Federation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Prelorentzos, Arsenios-Georgios N. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Xidonas, Panos & Goutte, Stephane & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2024. "Introducing the GVAR-GARCH model: Evidence from financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Khan, Muhammad Imran & Teng, Jian-Zhou & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Jadoon, Arshad Ullah & Khan, Muhammad Fayaz, 2021. "The impact of oil prices on stock market development in Pakistan: Evidence with a novel dynamic simulated ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Xiaohua Sun & Danish Khan & Yubai Zheng, 2024. "Articulating the Role of Technological Innovation and Policy Uncertainty in Energy Efficiency: an Empirical Investigation," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 14597-14616, September.
    7. Xia, Wanjun & Murshed, Muntasir & Khan, Zeeshan & Chen, Zhenling & Ferraz, Diogo, 2022. "Exploring the nexus between fiscal decentralization and energy poverty for China: Does country risk matter for energy poverty reduction?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    8. Tüzemen Samet & Barış-Tüzemen Özge & Çelik Ali Kemal, 2021. "The relationship between information and communication technologies and female labour force participation in Turkey," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 7(4), pages 121-145, December.
    9. Roy, Arup, 2024. "Impacts of economic development, globalization, and gross capital formation on natural resources rents: Evidence from India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    10. Cambra-Fierro, Jesús & Polo-Redondo, Yolanda & Trifu, Andreea, 2021. "Short-term and long-term effects of touchpoints on customer perceptions," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Mohammad Subhan & Aqsa Anjum & M. N. Zamir & Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2024. "Do energy, inflation, and financial development stimulate economic welfare in India? Empirical insights from novel dynamic ARDL and KRLS simulations," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-27, August.
    12. Nurulhuda Seriram & Muhamad Rias K. V. Zainuddin & Hakimah Nur Ahmad Hamidi & Amirul Hamza Abdullah, 2024. "Impacts of Renewable Energy Transitions on the Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Dynamic ARDL Simulations," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(5), pages 251-258, September.
    13. Hossain, Md. Emran & Islam, Md. Sayemul & Bandyopadhyay, Arunava & Awan, Ashar & Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Rej, Soumen, 2022. "Mexico at the crossroads of natural resource dependence and COP26 pledge: Does technological innovation help?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Oryani, Bahareh & Moridian, Ali & Sarkar, Biswajit & Rezania, Shahabaldin & Kamyab, Hesam & Khan, Muhammad Kamran, 2022. "Assessing the financial rеsоurсе curse hypothesis in Iran: Thе nоvеl dynаmiс АRDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Zhou, Runyu & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Almulhim, Abdulaziz.I. & Alvarado, Rafael, 2022. "Do natural resources, economic growth, human capital, and urbanization affect the ecological footprint? A modified dynamic ARDL and KRLS approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Emrah Beşe & H. Swint Friday & Salih Kalaycı, 2024. "Examining the Relationship between Inflation Instability and Ecological Footprint: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 460-467, March.
    17. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Adedoyin, Festus Fatai & Abbas, Jaffar & Hussain, Khadim, 2021. "The impact of energy depletion and renewable energy on CO2 emissions in Thailand: Fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 1439-1450.
    18. Hossain, Mohammad Razib & Rej, Soumen & Awan, Ashar & Bandyopadhyay, Arunava & Islam, Md Sayemul & Das, Narasingha & Hossain, Md Emran, 2023. "Natural resource dependency and environmental sustainability under N-shaped EKC: The curious case of India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Zhang, Jinjun & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Hussain, Khadim & Akram, Sabahat & Alvarado, Rafael & Almulhim, Abdulaziz I., 2022. "Another perspective towards energy consumption factors in Pakistan: Fresh policy insights from novel methodological framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    20. Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Hussain, Khadim & Redulescu, Magdalena & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2021. "Does natural resources depletion and economic growth achieve the carbon neutrality target of the UK? A way forward towards sustainable development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global value chains; economic development; dynamic ARDL simulation; International trade; Morocco;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:econom:v:13:y:2025:i:1:p:179-196:n:1009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.