IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/ecocul/v22y2025i2p17-31n1006.html

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Non-Tariff Trade Restrictions on Manufacturing Jobs in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Oshodi Ayodele Folorunso

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria)

Abstract

Research purpose. The research sought to investigate the impact of non-tariff trade restrictions on manufacturing jobs in Nigeria. Design / Methodology / Approach. In accomplishing this, the study adopts an econometric approach and employs the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique to capture both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships between employment (EMP) and explanatory variables. Findings. The findings show that non-tariff trade restrictions significantly contribute to short-term and long-run job creation within the Nigerian industrial sector. However, import restrictions excluding taxes and tariffs do not exhibit significant short-term effects, suggesting that the type of trade restrictions implemented matters for immediate employment outcomes. The negative relationship between real wages and industrial employment across both short and long runs indicates that rising labour costs can deter firms from expanding their workforce, pointing to the critical role of managing wage levels for job sustainability in the industrial sector. Originality / Value / Practical implications. The extent to which non-tariff measures affect trade, manufacturing employment and wages is less well understood and documented in Nigeria; hence, this study examines the impact of non-tariff trade restrictions on manufacturing jobs in Nigeria. Unlike most previous studies that used factor content or growth accounting approaches and the gravity model in explaining the effects of trade on employment, this study employs an econometric modelling approach to labour demand and uses measures of aggregate trade restrictions as a proxy for measuring non-tariff trade restrictions in Nigeria. Thus, while trade restrictions can be used to protect domestic industries and industrial employment, nevertheless, manufacturing job sustainability can only be guaranteed if complementary policies that would improve the quality of manufactured products, increase domestic demand and value addition in industries are implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Oshodi Ayodele Folorunso, 2025. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Non-Tariff Trade Restrictions on Manufacturing Jobs in Nigeria," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 22(2), pages 17-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecocul:v:22:y:2025:i:2:p:17-31:n:1006
    DOI: 10.2478/jec-2025-0017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/jec-2025-0017
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/jec-2025-0017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arita, Shawn & Mitchell, Lorraine & Beckman, Jayson, 2015. "Estimating the Effects of Selected Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and Technical Barriers to Trade on U.S.-EU Agricultural Trade," Economic Research Report 212887, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Busse, Matthias & Dary, Stanley Kojo & Wüstenfeld, Jan, 2024. "Trade liberalisation and manufacturing employment in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 410-421.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Robert E. Baldwin, 1995. "The Effects of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment on Employment and Relative Wages," NBER Working Papers 5037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mike Webb & Anna Strutt & John Gibson & Terrie Walmsley, 2020. "Modelling the impact of non‐tariff measures on supply chains in ASEAN," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(8), pages 2172-2198, August.
    6. Gabriel Felbermayr & Luisa Kinzius & Erdal Yalcin, 2017. "Hidden Protectionism: Non-Tariff Barriers and Implications for International Trade," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 91.
    7. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    8. Leonardi, Marco & Meschi, Elena, 2021. "Do Non-tariff Barriers to Trade Save American Jobs and Wages?," IZA Discussion Papers 14162, IZA Network @ LISER.
    9. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    10. Everett Peterson & Jason Grant & Donna Roberts & Vuko Karov, 2013. "Evaluating the Trade Restrictiveness of Phytosanitary Measures on U.S. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Imports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(4), pages 842-858.
    11. Anne-Célia Disdier & Marco Fugazza, 2020. "A Practical Guide to the Economic Analysis of Non-Tariff Measures," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02921617, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2020. "Impact of economic growth volatility on income inequality: ASEAN experience," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 807-850, June.
    2. Buhari Doğan, 2016. "The Effects of Globalization on Employment: Bounds Test Approach in Turkey Sample," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(10), pages 620-633, October.
    3. Karasoy, Alper, 2022. "Is innovative technology a solution to Japan's long-run energy insecurity? Dynamic evidence from the linear and nonlinear methods," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    5. Noraida, A.W. & Abdul-Rahim, A.S. & Othman, Mohd, 2017. "The Impact of Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) Practices on Primary Timber-Based Production in Peninsular Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 51(2), pages 143-154.
    6. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Correction to: Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 635-635, February.
    7. Nisamudheen, P.P. & Shareef, K. Hassan, 2025. "The role of human capital in driving renewable energy and sustainable development in India," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    9. Md. Saiful Islam, 2025. "Linking green innovation to environmental quality in Saudi Arabia: an application of the NARDL approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 19741-19762, August.
    10. Zahoor Ahmed & Michael Cary & Sajid Ali & Muntasir Murshed & Hamid Ullah & Haider Mahmood, 2022. "Moving toward a green revolution in Japan: Symmetric and asymmetric relationships among clean energy technology development investments, economic growth, and CO2 emissions," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(7), pages 1417-1440, November.
    11. Ziramba, Emmanuel, 2008. "The demand for residential electricity in South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3460-3466, September.
    12. Jikun Jiang & Shenglai Zhu & Weihao Wang, 2022. "Carbon Emissions, Economic Growth, Urbanization, and Foreign Trade in China: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-15, August.
    13. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    14. T.K. Jayaraman & Chee-Keong Choong & Pravinesh Chand, 2016. "Do Foreign Aid And Remittance Inflows Hurt Competitiveness Of Exports Of Pacific Island Countries? An Empirical Study Of Fiji," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 111-125, June.
    15. Ulrich Witt & Christian Gross, 2020. "The rise of the “service economy” in the second half of the twentieth century and its energetic contingencies," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 231-246, April.
    16. Hande Aksöz Yılmaz, 2020. "The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immigration from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 62(62), pages 123-143, December.
    17. Ramlogan, Avinash & Nelson, Andell, 2024. "Assessing the influence of fiscal and monetary policies on carbon dioxide emissions," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(3).
    18. Kumar, Nikeel Nishkar & Patel, Arvind, 2023. "Nonlinear effect of air travel tourism demand on economic growth in Fiji," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Javid, Muhammad & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I. & Shabaneh, Rami & Darandary, Abdulelah & Alyamani, Ryan, 2025. "Macroeconomic and sectoral effects of natural gas price: Policy insights from a macroeconometric model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    20. Sinha, Avik & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 emission: Role of renewable energy generation in India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 703-711.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:ecocul:v:22:y:2025:i:2:p:17-31:n:1006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.