Can Credit Default Swaps Predict Financial Crises? Empirical Study On Emerging Markets
We explore the informational value of credit default swaps and the extent to which they may be linked to financial crises. After developing a theoretical framework to model the relationship between credit default swap market and equity and currency markets, we apply an empirical study which uses logistic regressions and a panel data sample of emerging markets to assess the ability of these financial instruments to predict crises. Regarding them as reflections of future expectations of investors on the outcomes of currency and equity markets, we find credit default swaps to be a significant indicator explaining the periods proceeding financial crises, at least in equity markets. The inclusion of credit default swaps as a factor in models that predict crises and their ability to improve predictions in equity market is a major contribution of this study to the existing literature.
Volume (Year): 4 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1(7)_ Spring 2009 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- W. R. M. Perraudin & Manmohan S. Kumar & Uma Moorthy, 2002.
"Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes,"
IMF Working Papers
02/7, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996.
"Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," NBER Working Papers 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Coudert, V. & Gex, M., 2006. "Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 9, pages 67-87, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:1(7)_spring2009:56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Stefanescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.