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Can Credit Default Swaps Predict Financial Crises? Empirical Study On Emerging Markets

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  • Hekuran NEZIRI

Abstract

We explore the informational value of credit default swaps and the extent to which they may be linked to financial crises. After developing a theoretical framework to model the relationship between credit default swap market and equity and currency markets, we apply an empirical study which uses logistic regressions and a panel data sample of emerging markets to assess the ability of these financial instruments to predict crises. Regarding them as reflections of future expectations of investors on the outcomes of currency and equity markets, we find credit default swaps to be a significant indicator explaining the periods proceeding financial crises, at least in equity markets. The inclusion of credit default swaps as a factor in models that predict crises and their ability to improve predictions in equity market is a major contribution of this study to the existing literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Hekuran NEZIRI, 2009. "Can Credit Default Swaps Predict Financial Crises? Empirical Study On Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
  • Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:1(7)_spring2009:56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    2. Coudert, V. & Gex, M., 2006. "Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 9, pages 67-87, December.
    3. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward I. Altman & Herbert A. Rijken, 2011. "Toward a Bottom‐Up Approach to Assessing Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 23(1), pages 20-31, January.
    2. Sergey SVESHNIKOV & Victor BOCHARNIKOV, 2009. "Eforecasting Financial Indexes With Model Of Composite Events Influence," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).
    3. Edward I. Altman & Herbert A. Rijken, 2013. "Sovereign default risk assessment," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 6-27.
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:525-542 is not listed on IDEAS

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