IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Eforecasting Financial Indexes With Model Of Composite Events Influence




In this article we propose the model for the forecast of various financial indexes: stock markets indexes; currency exchange rates; crediting rates. Behaviour of financial indexes depends on psychological sentiments of players (investors, traders) and their inclination to buy or sell financial tools. We have made the supposition that political, economical, financial and other events are preconditions for formation of the future psychological sentiments of players. Therefore, for forecasting financial indexes we estimate influence of all topical events on the future inclination of players to buy or sell. The proposed model calculates the composite influence of events on the basis of estimations of influence direction, influence force, influence time, events importance and confidence to the information about events. The model fulfils the calculations with help of fuzzy integral Sugeno (1972). We have used this model for forecasting indexes of various economical natures: Ukrainian stock index (PFTS); exchange rate EUR/USD; crediting rate KievPrime 1M and quotations of Eurobonds Ukraine 2015. We also have estimated errors and horizons of forecasts..

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey SVESHNIKOV & Victor BOCHARNIKOV, 2009. "Eforecasting Financial Indexes With Model Of Composite Events Influence," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).
  • Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:3(9)_fall2009:76

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fong Chan, Kam & Gray, Philip, 2006. "Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 283-300.
    2. Chin-Shien Lin & Haider Ali Khan & Chi-Chung Huang, 2002. "Can the neuro fuzzy model predict stock indexes better than its rivals?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-165, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Marshall, Ben R. & Cahan, Rochester H., 2005. "Is technical analysis profitable on a stock market which has characteristics that suggest it may be inefficient?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 384-398, September.
    4. Jorge Caiado, 2004. "Modelling And Forecasting The Volatility Of The Portuguese Stock Index Psi-20," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(1), pages 3-21.
    5. Hekuran NEZIRI, 2009. "Can Credit Default Swaps Predict Financial Crises? Empirical Study On Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(1(7)_ Spr).
    6. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W., 2004. "Forecasting with a nonlinear dynamic model of stock returns and industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 321-342.
    7. Olson, Dennis & Mossman, Charles, 2003. "Neural network forecasts of Canadian stock returns using accounting ratios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 453-465.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. K. Senthil KUMAR & C. VIJAYABANU & R. AMUDHA, 2012. "A Case Study On Investors’ Financial Literacy In Indian Scenario," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 262-269.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:3(9)_fall2009:76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Stefanescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.