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The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization

Author

Listed:
  • Arpit Gupta
  • Christopher Hansman
  • Ethan Frenchman

Abstract

In the United States, roughly 450,000 people are detained awaiting trial on any given day, typically because they have not posted bail. Using a large sample of criminal cases in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, we analyze the consequences of the money bail system by exploiting the variation in bail-setting tendencies among randomly assigned bail judges. Our estimates suggest that the assignment of money bail leads to a 12 percent increase in the likelihood of conviction and a 6-9 percent increase in recidivism. Our results highlight the importance of credit constraints in shaping defendant outcomes and point to important fairness considerations in the institutional design of the American money bail system.

Suggested Citation

  • Arpit Gupta & Christopher Hansman & Ethan Frenchman, 2016. "The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 471-505.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlstud:doi:10.1086/688907
    DOI: 10.1086/688907
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Aizer & Joseph J. Doyle, 2015. "Juvenile Incarceration, Human Capital, and Future Crime: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 759-803.
    2. David S. Abrams & Chris Rohlfs, 2011. "Optimal Bail And The Value Of Freedom: Evidence From The Philadelphia Bail Experiment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 750-770, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Albright, Alex, 2022. "No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program," SocArXiv 42pbz, Center for Open Science.
    2. Jon Kleinberg & Himabindu Lakkaraju & Jure Leskovec & Jens Ludwig & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2018. "Human Decisions and Machine Predictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 237-293.
    3. Amanda Agan & Matthew Freedman & Emily Owens, 2021. "Is Your Lawyer a Lemon? Incentives and Selection in the Public Provision of Criminal Defense," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(2), pages 294-309, May.
    4. Will Dobbie & Jacob Goldin & Crystal S. Yang, 2018. "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 201-240, February.
    5. Shroff, Ravi & Vamvourellis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Pretrial release judgments and decision fatigue," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117579, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. David Arnold & Will Dobbie & Crystal S Yang, 2018. "Racial Bias in Bail Decisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1885-1932.
    7. Elsa Augustine & Johanna Lacoe & Steven Raphael & Alissa Skog, 2022. "The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Francisco," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 683-709, June.
    8. Robert S. Erikson, 2022. "Appellate court assignments as a natural experiment: Gender panel effects in sex discrimination cases," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 423-446, June.
    9. Egan, Mark & Matvos, Gregor & Seru, Amit, 2018. "Arbitration with Uninformed Consumers," Research Papers 3768, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    10. Angela Zhou & Andrew Koo & Nathan Kallus & Rene Ropac & Richard Peterson & Stephen Koppel & Tiffany Bergin, 2021. "An Empirical Evaluation of the Impact of New York's Bail Reform on Crime Using Synthetic Controls," Papers 2111.08664, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    11. Brigham Frandsen & Lars Lefgren & Emily Leslie, 2023. "Judging Judge Fixed Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(1), pages 253-277, January.
    12. Will Dobbie & Crystal S. Yang, 2021. "The US Pretrial System: Balancing Individual Rights and Public Interests," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 49-70, Fall.
    13. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:6:p:1176-1207 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Campbell, Christopher M. & Labrecque, Ryan M. & Weinerman, Michael & Sanchagrin, Ken, 2020. "Gauging detention dosage: Assessing the impact of pretrial detention on sentencing outcomes using propensity score modeling," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Jason Baron, E. & Jacob, Brian & Ryan, Joseph, 2023. "Pretrial juvenile detention," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    16. Megan T Stevenson, 2018. "Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 511-542.
    17. Sloan, Carly Will & Naufal, George S & Caspers, Heather, 2018. "The Effect of Risk Assessment Scores on Judicial Behavior and Defendant Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 11948, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:6:p:1176-1207 is not listed on IDEAS

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