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Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government

Author

Listed:
  • Tony McDonald

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Yong Hong Yan

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Blake Ford

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • David Stephan

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

This paper develops estimates of the structural budget balance of the Australian Government. It describes the methodology and assumptions used in developing these estimates, includes sensitivity analysis, and explains why these estimates differ from those produced by the IMF and OECD.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony McDonald & Yong Hong Yan & Blake Ford & David Stephan, 2010. "Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 3, pages 51-79, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2010_3_1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://archive.treasury.gov.au/documents/1881/PDF/04_Structural_Budget_Balance.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    3. Mr. Nigel A Chalk, 2002. "Structural Balances and All That: Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2002/101, International Monetary Fund.
    4. David Gruen & Amanda Sayegh, 2005. "The Evolution of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 21(4), pages 618-635, Winter.
    5. Robert Price & Isabelle Joumard & Christophe André & Makoto Minegishi, 2008. "Strategies for Countries with Favourable Fiscal Positions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 655, OECD Publishing.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    7. Jin Liu & Tony McDonald, 2010. "China: growth, urbanisation and mineral resource demand," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 57-71, July.
    8. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    9. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
    10. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Output Gaps In Real Time: How Reliable Are They?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(252), pages 6-18, March.
    11. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nu Nu Win & Simon Duggan & Phil Garton & Spiro Premetis & Bonnie Li, 2013. "Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government: An update," Treasury Working Papers 2013-01, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised May 2013.
    2. Richard Eccleston, 2012. "Australia's Future Fund: a future beyond the GFC," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 284-297.
    3. George Kopits, 2014. "Ireland’s Fiscal Framework: Options for the Future," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(1), pages 135-158.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    balanced budget; fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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