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Urbanisation, Primatie Et Étapes De Développement : Existe-T-Il Une Courbe En Cloche ?

Author

Listed:
  • Maurice CATIN

    () (LEAD, Université du Sud Toulon-Var)

  • Saïd HANCHANE

    () (LEST, CNRS)

  • Abdelhak KAMAL

    () (LEAD, Université du Sud Toulon-Var)

Abstract

Un modèle empirique est proposé pour analyser les principaux déterminants de l’évolution du taux d’urbanisation et du degré de primatie urbaine dans les pays en développement, distingués en trois groupes de niveau de revenu par tête, et vérifier de là l’existence ou non d’une courbe en cloche qui fait l’objet de controverses dans la littérature. Les résultats du modèle, estimé par périodes quinquennales de 1950 à 2000 en panel avec variables instrumentales, montrent que : (i) la progression du taux d’urbanisation jusqu’à un certain pic est plus poussée par l’exode agricole que par la croissance du revenu par tête ; (ii) la primatie suit une certaine courbe en cloche, avec une certaine marge d’indétermination dans sa trajectoire. La diffusion de la population vers les villes de rang inférieur est d’autant plus marquée que la croissance du revenu par tête est forte, la baisse de l’emploi agricole limitée, l’ouverture internationale plus poussée, la croissance démographique élevée, les infrastructures de transport plus importantes, les spécialisations productives moins orientées vers les industries de biens primaires.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice CATIN & Saïd HANCHANE & Abdelhak KAMAL, 2008. "Urbanisation, Primatie Et Étapes De Développement : Existe-T-Il Une Courbe En Cloche ?," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 83-108.
  • Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:27:y:2008:p:83-108
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    File URL: http://region-developpement.univ-tln.fr/fr/pdf/R27/Catin.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    8. Maurice Catin & Christophe Van Huffel, 2003. "Concentration urbaine et industrialisation," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 121(1), pages 87-107.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    URBANISATION; PRIMATIE URBAINE; COURBE EN CLOCHE; ÉTAPES DE DÉVELOPPEMENT;

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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