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Urbanisation, Primatie Et Étapes De Développement : Existe-T-Il Une Courbe En Cloche ?

  • Maurice CATIN

    ()

    (LEAD, Université du Sud Toulon-Var)

  • Saïd HANCHANE

    ()

    (LEST, CNRS)

  • Abdelhak KAMAL

    ()

    (LEAD, Université du Sud Toulon-Var)

Registered author(s):

    Un modèle empirique est proposé pour analyser les principaux déterminants de l’évolution du taux d’urbanisation et du degré de primatie urbaine dans les pays en développement, distingués en trois groupes de niveau de revenu par tête, et vérifier de là l’existence ou non d’une courbe en cloche qui fait l’objet de controverses dans la littérature. Les résultats du modèle, estimé par périodes quinquennales de 1950 à 2000 en panel avec variables instrumentales, montrent que : (i) la progression du taux d’urbanisation jusqu’à un certain pic est plus poussée par l’exode agricole que par la croissance du revenu par tête ; (ii) la primatie suit une certaine courbe en cloche, avec une certaine marge d’indétermination dans sa trajectoire. La diffusion de la population vers les villes de rang inférieur est d’autant plus marquée que la croissance du revenu par tête est forte, la baisse de l’emploi agricole limitée, l’ouverture internationale plus poussée, la croissance démographique élevée, les infrastructures de transport plus importantes, les spécialisations productives moins orientées vers les industries de biens primaires.

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    File URL: http://region-developpement.univ-tln.fr/fr/pdf/R27/Catin.pdf
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    Article provided by Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var in its journal Région et Développement.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 83-108

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    Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:27:y:2008:p:83-108
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://regionetdeveloppement.org/
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    1. Ades, Alberto F & Glaeser, Edward L, 1995. "Trade and Circuses: Explaining Urban Giants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 195-227, February.
    2. Henderson, J. Vernon & Wang, Hyoung Gun, 2007. "Urbanization and city growth: The role of institutions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 283-313, May.
    3. Ronald L. Moomaw & Mohammed A. Alwosabi, 2004. "An empirical analysis of competing explanations of urban primacy evidence from Asia and the Americas," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 149-171, 03.
    4. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    5. Davis, James C. & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2003. "Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-125, January.
    6. Rosen, Kenneth T. & Resnick, Mitchel, 1980. "The size distribution of cities: An examination of the Pareto law and primacy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 165-186, September.
    7. Maurice Catin & Christophe Van Huffel, 2003. "Concentration urbaine et industrialisation," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 121(1), pages 87-107.
    8. Wheaton, William C & Shishido, Hisanobu, 1981. "Urban Concentration, Agglomeration Economies, and the Level of Economic Development," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 17-30, October.
    9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    10. Parr, John B., 1985. "A note on the size distribution of cities over time," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-212, September.
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