IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tcb/cebare/v2y2002i1p39-64.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Causality Analysis of External Debt Service and GNP : The Case of Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Erdal Karagol

Abstract

It is argued that debt service burden has a negative impact on investment and capital accumulation. The main reason is that the greater percentage of reserves (foreign currency) goes to meet debt service and there will be a reduction in external capital because of a decrease in creditworthiness. This paper extends the model of Cunningham (1992) and uses multivariate cointegration techniques to develop a vector error correction model useful for investigating the long-run effects of external debt service on GNP level. Moreover, the information on cointegration (Johansen ,1988 and Johansen &Juselius ,1990) in variables are taken into consideration in specifying the correct model. We apply our methodology to Turkey and show how external debt service is having a negative short -run impact on economic growth. The results also show that there is a uni-directional causal relationship between debt service and GNP level.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdal Karagol, 2002. "The Causality Analysis of External Debt Service and GNP : The Case of Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 2(1), pages 39-64.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:39-64
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2002/Volume+2-1/
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christos Kollias, 1995. "Preliminary findings on the economic effects of Greek military expenditure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 16-18.
    2. Merih Celâsun & Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Turkish Experience with Debt: Macroeconomic Policy and Performance," NBER Chapters,in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 193-211 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Metwally, M. M. & Tamaschke, Rick, 1994. "The interaction among foreign debt, capital flows, and growth: Case studies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 597-608, December.
    4. van den Berg, Hendrik & Jayanetti, Sanath C., 1993. "A novel test of the monetary approach using black market exchange rates and the Johansen-Juselius cointegration method," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 413-418.
    5. Biswas, Basudeb & Ram, Rati, 1986. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 361-372, January.
    6. Riccardo Faini & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Adjustment, Investment and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 6, pages 137-165 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Bert Hofman & Helmut Reisen, 1991. "Some evidence on debt-related determinants of investment and consumption in heavily indebted countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(2), pages 281-299, June.
    8. Selami Sezgin, 1997. "Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 381-409.
    9. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
    10. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    11. Roger Perman, 1991. "Cointegration: An Introduction to the Literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 3-30, September.
    12. Daniel Levy, 2005. "Capital Stock Depreciation, Tax Rules, and Composition of Aggregate Investment," Others 0505007, EconWPA.
    13. Hall, S G, 1989. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Cointegration Vectors: An Example of the Johansen Procedure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 213-218, March.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Krueger, Anne O., 1987. "Origins of the developing countries' debt crisis : 1970 to 1982," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 165-187, October.
    16. Khalifa Ghali, 1998. "Public investment and private capital formation in a vector error-correction model of growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 837-844.
    17. Rodrik, Dani, 1995. "Political economy of trade policy," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 28, pages 1457-1494 Elsevier.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Steven B. Kamin & Robert B. Kahn & Ross Levine, 1989. "External debt and developing country growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 352, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Ghatak, Subrata & Milner, Chris & Utkulu, Utku, 1995. "Trade Liberalisation and Endogenous Growth: Some Evidence for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 28(2-3), pages 147-167.
    21. Borensztein, Eduardo, 1990. "Debt overhang, credit rationing and investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 315-335, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erdal Karagol, 2004. "A Critical Review of External Debt and Economic Growth Relationship: A Lesson for Indebtedness Countries," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 69-78.
    2. Luke Emeka Okafor & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2010. "Saving less when there is more foreign lending? Foreign debt and savings in developing countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 213-223.
    3. Erbil, Can & Salman, Ferhan, 2006. "Revealing Turkey's public debt burden: A transparent payments approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 825-835, October.
    4. Erdal Karagol, 2006. "The Relationship Between External Debt, Defence Expenditures And Gnp Revisited: The Case Of Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 47-57.
    5. repec:khe:scajes:v:4:y:2018:i:1:p:153-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hanan Aboel Farag & Mohamed Sayed Abed, 2017. "The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on Economic Growth and Employment in Egypt: A Sectoral Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 1152, Economic Research Forum, revised 11 Sep 2003.
    7. Irina Bilan & Iulian Ihnatov, 2015. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Two-Sided Story," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 24-39, June.
    8. Naeem Akram, 2013. "Empirical examination of debt and growth nexus in South Asian countries," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(2), pages 29-52, December.
    9. Aminu, Umaru & Ahmad Aminu, Hamidu & Salihu, Musa, 2013. "External Debt and Domestic Debt impact on the growth of the Nigerian Economy," MPRA Paper 75122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:bal:journl:2256-0742:2015:1:1:17 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:pje:journl:article27winiii is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ertunc Alioglu & Can Erbil & Ferhan Salman, 2004. "Revealing Turkey’s Public Debt Burden: A Transparent Payments Approach," Public Economics 0409004, EconWPA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; External Debt; Cointegration; Causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:39-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: () or () or (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.