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How consistent are alternative short-term climate policies with long-term goals?

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  • Valentina Bosetti
  • Marzio Galeotti
  • Alessandro Lanza

Abstract

A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO 2 concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission-the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections-are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy-climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Bosetti & Marzio Galeotti & Alessandro Lanza, 2006. "How consistent are alternative short-term climate policies with long-term goals?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 295-312, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:6:y:2006:i:3:p:295-312
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2006.9685603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Popp, 2003. "ENTICE: Endogenous Technological Change in the DICE Model of Global Warming," NBER Working Papers 9762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carlo Carraro & Barbara Buchner, 2003. "China and the Evolution of the Present Climate Regime," Working Papers 2003.103, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. William D. Nordhaus & David Popp, 1997. "What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-45.
    4. Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro and Marzio Galeotti, 2006. "The Dynamics of Carbon and Energy Intensity in a Model of Endogenous Technical Change," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 191-206.
    5. Marzio Galeotti & Carlo Carraro, 2004. "Does Endogenous Technical Change Make a Difference in Climate Policy Analysis? A Robustness Exercise with the FEEM-RICE Model," Working Papers 2004.152, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bosetti, Valentina & Carraro, Carlo & Galeotti, Marzio, 2006. "Stabilisation Targets, Technical Change and the Macroeconomic Costs of Climate Change Control," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12050, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro and Marzio Galeotti, 2006. "The Dynamics of Carbon and Energy Intensity in a Model of Endogenous Technical Change," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 191-206.
    3. Cantore, Nicola, 2011. "Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2919-2924, May.
    4. Barry Anderson & Emanuele Borgonovo & Marzio Galeotti & Roberto Roson, 2014. "Uncertainty in Climate Change Modeling: Can Global Sensitivity Analysis Be of Help?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 271-293, February.
    5. Marzio Galeotti & Carlo Carraro, 2004. "Does Endogenous Technical Change Make a Difference in Climate Policy Analysis? A Robustness Exercise with the FEEM-RICE Model," Working Papers 2004.152, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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