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Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race

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  • Tom Warnke
  • Oliver Reinhardt
  • Anna Klabunde
  • Frans Willekens
  • Adelinde M. Uhrmacher

Abstract

Individuals’ decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Warnke & Oliver Reinhardt & Anna Klabunde & Frans Willekens & Adelinde M. Uhrmacher, 2017. "Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(0), pages 69-83, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:0:p:69-83
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1380960
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Klabunde & Sabine Zinn & Frans Willekens & Matthias Leuchter, 2017. "Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(0), pages 51-67, October.
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    4. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, January.
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    6. Anna Klabunde & Frans Willekens, 2016. "Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 73-97, February.
    7. Anna Klabunde & Frans J. Willekens & Sabine Zinn & Matthias Leuchter, 2015. "An agent-based decision model of migration, embedded in the life course - Model description in ODD+D format," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. Grimm, Volker & Berger, Uta & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Polhill, J. Gary & Giske, Jarl & Railsback, Steven F., 2010. "The ODD protocol: A review and first update," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(23), pages 2760-2768.
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    10. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
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    1. Bourceret, Amélie & Amblard, Laurence & Mathias, Jean-Denis, 2022. "Adapting the governance of social–ecological systems to behavioural dynamics: An agent-based model for water quality management using the theory of planned behaviour," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. Frans Willekens, 2018. "Towards causal forecasting of international migration," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 199-218.

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