IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of Chinese money and prices using a McCallum-type rule


  • Tuuli Koivu
  • Aaron Mehrotra
  • Riikka Nuutilainen


This paper evaluates the usefulness of a McCallum-type monetary policy rule based on money supply for maintaining price stability in mainland China. We examine whether excess money relative to rule-based values provides information that improves the forecasting of price developments. The results suggest that our monetary variable helps in predicting both consumer and corporate goods price inflation, but the results for consumer prices depend on the forecasting period. Moreover, results using a structural vector autoregression suggest that our measure of excess money supply could be used to identify monetary policy shocks in the Chinese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuuli Koivu & Aaron Mehrotra & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2009. "An analysis of Chinese money and prices using a McCallum-type rule," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 219-235.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:7:y:2009:i:2:p:219-235 DOI: 10.1080/14765280902847742

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aitken, Brian & Hanson, Gordon H. & Harrison, Ann E., 1997. "Spillovers, foreign investment, and export behavior," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 103-132, August.
    2. Knight, John & Yueh, Linda, 2004. "Job mobility of residents and migrants in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 637-660, December.
    3. Richard Kneller & Mauro Pisu, 2007. "Industrial Linkages and Export Spillovers from FDI," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 105-134, January.
    4. Sofronis K. Clerides & Saul Lach & James R. Tybout, 1998. "Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 903-947.
    5. Sourafel Girma & Yundan Gong, 2008. "FDI, Linkages and the Efficiency of State-Owned Enterprises in China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 728-749.
    6. Wang, Jian-Ye & Blomstrom, Magnus, 1992. "Foreign investment and technology transfer : A simple model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 137-155, January.
    7. Nicole Madariaga & Sandra Poncet, 2007. "FDI in Chinese Cities: Spillovers and Impact on Growth," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 837-862, May.
    8. Holger Görg & Eric Strobl, 2005. "Spillovers from Foreign Firms through Worker Mobility: An Empirical Investigation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(4), pages 693-709, December.
    9. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1999. "Foreign direct investment as a catalyst for industrial development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 335-356, February.
    10. Theodore H. Moran & Edward M. Graham & Magnus Blomstrom, 2005. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3810.
    11. Xiaolan Fu & V. N. Balasubramanyam, 2005. "Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Employment: The Case of China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 607-625, April.
    12. Fan, C. Simon & Hu, Yifan, 2007. "Foreign direct investment and indigenous technological efforts: Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 253-258, August.
    13. repec:wsi:wschap:9789814749237_0010 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Wolfgang Keller, 2004. "International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 752-782, September.
    15. Sourafel Girma & Holger Görg & Mauro Pisu, 2016. "Exporting, linkages and productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES AND HOST COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT Volume 53: World Scientific Studies in International Economics, chapter 10, pages 191-211 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Markusen, James R. & Trofimenko, Natalia, 2009. "Teaching locals new tricks: Foreign experts as a channel of knowledge transfers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 120-131, January.
    17. Sourafel Girma, 2005. "Absorptive Capacity and Productivity Spillovers from FDI: A Threshold Regression Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 281-306, June.
    18. Rod Falvey & Udo Kreickemeier, 2017. "Globalization and Factor Returns in Competitive Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Trade and Labor Markets Welfare, Inequality and Unemployment, chapter 1, pages 3-25 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Glass, Amy Jocelyn & Saggi, Kamal, 2002. " Multinational Firms and Technology Transfer," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(4), pages 495-513, December.
    20. Liu, Zhiqiang, 2008. "Foreign direct investment and technology spillovers: Theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 176-193, February.
    21. Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, 2004. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 605-627, June.
    22. Roberto Alvarez & Ricardo López, 2005. "Exporting and performance: evidence from Chilean plants," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1384-1400, November.
    23. Greenaway, David & Kneller, Richard, 2008. "Exporting, productivity and agglomeration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 919-939, July.
    24. Crespo, Nuno & Fontoura, Maria Paula, 2007. "Determinant Factors of FDI Spillovers - What Do We Really Know?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 410-425, March.
    25. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    26. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Firm heterogeneity, exporting and foreign direct investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(517), pages 134-161, February.
    27. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2004. "Exporting and Productivity in the United Kingdom," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 358-371, Autumn.
    28. Peter J Buckley & Jeremy Clegg & Chengqi Wang, 2002. "The Impact of Inward FDI on the Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 33(4), pages 637-655, December.
    29. Das, Sanghamitra, 1987. "Externalities, and technology transfer through multinational corporations A theoretical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 171-182, February.
    30. Girma, Sourafel & Gong, Yundan, 2008. "Putting people first? Chinese state-owned enterprises' adjustment to globalisation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 573-585, March.
    31. Peter J Buckley & Jeremy Clegg & Chengqi Wang, 2007. "Is the relationship between inward FDI and spillover effects linear? An empirical examination of the case of China," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 38(3), pages 447-459, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2015. "Contemporary monetary policy in China: A move towards price-based policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503181119 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Riikka Nuutilainen, 2015. "Contemporary Monetary Policy in China: An Empirical Assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 461-486, August.
    4. Koivu, Tuuli, 2012. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 307-325.
    5. Aaron Mehrotra & José R Sánchez-Fung, 2010. "China's Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 497-514, December.
    6. Koivu, Tuuli, 2010. "Monetary policy, asset prices and consumption in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    More about this item


    McCallum rule; monetary policy; China;


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:7:y:2009:i:2:p:219-235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.