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Smoothing Quantile Regressions

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  • Marcelo Fernandes
  • Emmanuel Guerre
  • Eduardo Horta

Abstract

We propose to smooth the objective function, rather than only the indicator on the check function, in a linear quantile regression context. Not only does the resulting smoothed quantile regression estimator yield a lower mean squared error and a more accurate Bahadur–Kiefer representation than the standard estimator, but it is also asymptotically differentiable. We exploit the latter to propose a quantile density estimator that does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. This means estimating the conditional density function without worrying about the dimension of the covariate vector. It also allows for two-stage efficient quantile regression estimation. Our asymptotic theory holds uniformly with respect to the bandwidth and quantile level. Finally, we propose a rule of thumb for choosing the smoothing bandwidth that should approximate well the optimal bandwidth. Simulations confirm that our smoothed quantile regression estimator indeed performs very well in finite samples. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Fernandes & Emmanuel Guerre & Eduardo Horta, 2021. "Smoothing Quantile Regressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 338-357, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:39:y:2021:i:1:p:338-357
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2019.1660177
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    3. James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Constructing Density Forecasts from Quantile Regressions: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics," Working Papers 22-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 11 Apr 2023.
    4. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Electricity price forecasting with Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: Quantifying economic benefits of probabilistic forecasts," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    5. Grigory Franguridi & Bulat Gafarov & Kaspar Wüthrich, 2021. "Conditional Quantile Estimators: A Small Sample Theory," CESifo Working Paper Series 9046, CESifo.
    6. Chen, Le-Yu & Lee, Sokbae, 2023. "Sparse quantile regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2195-2217.
    7. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca & Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolo & Sala, Luca, 2023. "The Impact of Financial Shocks on the Forecast Distribution of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng & Yundong Tu, 2023. "Smoothing the Nonsmoothness," Papers 2309.16348, arXiv.org.
    9. David M. Kaplan, 2022. "Smoothed instrumental variables quantile regression," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 22(2), pages 379-403, June.
    10. Jean-Jacques Forneron, 2023. "Noisy, Non-Smooth, Non-Convex Estimation of Moment Condition Models," Papers 2301.07196, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    11. Kean Ming Tan & Lan Wang & Wen‐Xin Zhou, 2022. "High‐dimensional quantile regression: Convolution smoothing and concave regularization," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(1), pages 205-233, February.
    12. de Castro, Luciano & Galvao, Antonio F. & Kaplan, David M. & Liu, Xin, 2019. "Smoothed GMM for quantile models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 121-144.
    13. He, Xuming & Pan, Xiaoou & Tan, Kean Ming & Zhou, Wen-Xin, 2023. "Smoothed quantile regression with large-scale inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 367-388.
    14. Tae-Hwy Lee & Aman Ullah & He Wang, 2023. "The Second-order Bias and Mean Squared Error of Quantile Regression Estimators," Working Papers 202313, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.

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