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Ambiguity in the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: An Empirical Assessment

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  • Julian Thimme
  • Clemens Völkert

Abstract

This article estimates and tests the smooth ambiguity model of Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji based on stock market data. We introduce a novel methodology to estimate the conditional expectation, which characterizes the impact of a decision maker's ambiguity attitude on asset prices. Our point estimates of the ambiguity parameter are between 25 and 60, whereas our risk aversion estimates are considerably lower. The substantial difference indicates that market participants are ambiguity averse. Furthermore, we evaluate if ambiguity aversion helps explaining the cross-section of expected returns. Compared with Epstein and Zin preferences, we find that incorporating ambiguity into the decision model improves the fit to the data while keeping relative risk aversion at more reasonable levels. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Thimme & Clemens Völkert, 2015. "Ambiguity in the Cross-Section of Expected Returns: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 418-429, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:33:y:2015:i:3:p:418-429
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2014.958230
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bansal, Ravi & Kiku, Dana & Yaron, Amir, 2016. "Risks for the long run: Estimation with time aggregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-69.
    2. Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean‐Marc Tallon, 2018. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 945-993, July.
    3. Jianjun Miao & Bin Wei & Hao Zhou, 2019. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Variance Premium," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-36, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantinos Georgalos, 2019. "An experimental test of the predictive power of dynamic ambiguity models," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 51-83, August.
    2. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2019. "A Volatility Smile-Based Uncertainty Index," Working Papers Series 502, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2021. "A volatility smile-based uncertainty index," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 231-246, June.
    4. Kellerer, Belinda, 2019. "Portfolio Optimization and Ambiguity Aversion," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 4(3), pages 305-338.
    5. Chiaki Hara, 2020. "A Ranking over "More Risk Averse Than" Relations and its Application to the Smooth Ambiguity Model," KIER Working Papers 1019, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Izhakian, Yehuda & Yermack, David, 2017. "Risk, ambiguity, and the exercise of employee stock options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 65-85.
    7. Yehuda Izhakian & David Yermack & Jaime F. Zender, 2016. "Ambiguity and the Tradeoff Theory of Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 22870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Puhl, Martin & Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2024. "Uncertainty premia for small and large risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Jianjun Miao & Bin Wei & Hao Zhou, 2019. "Ambiguity Aversion and the Variance Premium," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-36, June.
    10. Lago-Balsalobre, Rubén & Rojo-Suárez, Javier & Alonso-Conde, Ana B., 2023. "Cross-sectional implications of dynamic asset pricing with stochastic volatility and ambiguity aversion," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. Chiaki Hara & Toshiki Honda, 2018. "ImpliedAmbiguity:Mean-Variance Efficiency andPricingErrors," KIER Working Papers 1004, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    12. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    13. Dittmar, Robert F. & Schlag, Christian & Thimme, Julian, 2023. "Non-substitutable consumption growth risk," SAFE Working Paper Series 408, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    14. Georgalos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Dynamic decision making under ambiguity: An experimental investigation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 28-46.
    15. A. Ronald Gallant & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Hening Liu, 2015. "Measuring Ambiguity Aversion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-105, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Borup, Daniel & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes, 2022. "Asset pricing with data revisions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).

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