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Factor-Augmented VARMA Models With Macroeconomic Applications

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  • Jean-Marie Dufour
  • Dalibor Stevanović

Abstract

We study the relationship between vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) and factor representations of a vector stochastic process. We observe that, in general, vector time series and factors cannot both follow finite-order VAR models. Instead, a VAR factor dynamics induces a VARMA process, while a VAR process entails VARMA factors. We propose to combine factor and VARMA modeling by using factor-augmented VARMA (FAVARMA) models. This approach is applied to forecasting key macroeconomic aggregates using large U.S. and Canadian monthly panels. The results show that FAVARMA models yield substantial improvements over standard factor models, including precise representations of the effect and transmission of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Marie Dufour & Dalibor Stevanović, 2013. "Factor-Augmented VARMA Models With Macroeconomic Applications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 491-506, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:31:y:2013:i:4:p:491-506 DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2013.818005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Mao Takongmo, Charles Olivier & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2015. "Selection Of The Number Of Factors In Presence Of Structural Instability: A Monte Carlo Study," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 91(1-2), pages 177-233, Mars-Juin.
    2. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Structural analysis with Multivariate Autoregressive Index models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 332-348.
    3. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat, 2015. "Efficient estimation of Bayesian VARMAs with time-varying coefficients," CAMA Working Papers 2015-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Olubusoye, Olusanya E. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2016. "Time series analysis of persistence in crude oil price volatility across bull and bear regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-37.
    6. Maxime Leroux & Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2017. "Forecasting economic activity in data-rich environment," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-5, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. repec:eee:econom:v:202:y:2018:i:1:p:75-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dalibor Stevanovic, 2015. "Factor augmented autoregressive distributed lag models with macroeconomic applications," CIRANO Working Papers 2015s-33, CIRANO.

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