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The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ethiopia: Evidence from CVAR Applications

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  • Giulia Mascagni
  • Emilija Timmis

Abstract

This article explores the fiscal effects of aid in Ethiopia using the Cointegrated Vector Auto-Regressive (CVAR) methodology to model complex long-run and short-run dynamics. We use national data for 1961–2010, including a measure of aid capturing flows through the budget as measured by the recipient. The data suggests three main conclusions on the long-run equilibrium. First, government long-term spending plans are based on domestic sources, treating aid as an additional source of revenue. Second, both grants and loans are positively related to tax revenue. Third, aid is positively associated with spending, with a particularly strong relation between capital expenditure and grants. Overall, our results show that aid in Ethiopia had beneficial fiscal effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulia Mascagni & Emilija Timmis, 2017. "The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ethiopia: Evidence from CVAR Applications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1037-1056, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:53:y:2017:i:7:p:1037-1056
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2017.1303676
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00220388.2017.1303676
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Clist & Oliver Morrissey, 2011. "Aid and tax revenue: Signs of a positive effect since the 1980s," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 165-180, March.
    2. Nicolas Van de Sijpe, 2013. "Is Foreign Aid Fungible? Evidence from the Education and Health Sectors," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 27(2), pages 320-356.
    3. George Mavrotas, 2005. "Aid heterogeneity: looking at aid effectiveness from a different angle," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(8), pages 1019-1036.
    4. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2009. "Aid and Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?," WIDER Working Paper Series WIDER Discussion Paper 20, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Giulia Mascagni, 2016. "Aid and Taxation in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1744-1758, December.
    6. Carter Patrick, 2013. "Does Foreign Aid Displace Domestic Taxation?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-47, August.
    7. Giulia Mascagni & Emilija Timmis, "undated". "Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ethiopia: Evidence from CVAR applications," Discussion Papers 14/06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    8. Giulia Mascagni, 2016. "Aid and Taxation in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1744-1758, December.
    9. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
    10. Binh, Tran-Nam & McGillivray, Mark, 1993. "Foreign aid, taxes and public investment A comment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 173-176, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abrams M.E. Tagem, 2017. "The economics and politics of foreign aid and domestic revenue," WIDER Working Paper Series 180, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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