Bubbles in UK house prices: evidence from ESTR models
Recent movements in stock and house prices have led to an examination of the presence of bubbles. Whilst, there is extensive research on stock price data, there is relatively less for house prices. This paper uses a present-value model for house prices to test for the presence of bubbles. The results support the presence of a non-fundamental component within UK national and regional house prices. In particular, for the majority of series considered, evidence is presented of linear non-stationarity within the fundamental present-value relationship, and of non-linear stationarity, implying the presence of a non-fundamental, or bubble, component. Furthermore, evidence is presented that prices adjust quicker when they are below fundamental equilibrium, than when they are above fundamental equilibrium, i.e. there is downward price stickiness. These results support the hypothesis that house price dynamics can be characterised by price-to-price momentum. Finally, forecast evidence suggests that real prices are likely to adjust downwards and converge with fundamental value.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CIRA20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CIRA20|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:24:y:2010:i:4:p:437-452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.