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apport du biais d’excès de confiance à l’explication de la volatilité des rendements du marché des actions algérien

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  • Mohamed KHALED

Abstract

Dans la perspective d’examiner le marché des actions algérien, nous nous sommes intéressés dans ce papier à l’étude de l’apport du biais d’excès de confiance à l’explication de la volatilité des rendements du marché principal estimé à partir de l’indice DZAIRINDEX. Un tel essai est, à notre connaissance, inédit, pour ce qui est des études empiriques sur la Bourse d’Alger. A cet effet, nous avons conduit deux tests empiriques successifs dans le but de vérifier, en premier lieu, l’existence d’une relation entre le volume de transaction et la volatilité des rendements du marché algérien, à travers l’estimation d’un modèle ARMA (4,4)-EGARCH (1-1). La significativité de cette relation nous a autorisés à amorcer le deuxième test qui consiste à examiner la causalité au sens de Granger entre ces deux variables, sous l’hypothèse que les investisseurs algériens sur-réagissent à leur information privée.Les résultats obtenus démontrent que le biais d’excès de confiance ne cause pas, sur le court-terme, la volatilité des rendements du marché des actions algérien, mais contribue bien à l’expliquer, en adéquation avec d’autres facteurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed KHALED, 2018. "apport du biais d’excès de confiance à l’explication de la volatilité des rendements du marché des actions algérien," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 9(2), pages 36-46, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jaf:journl:v:9:y:2018:i:2:n:133
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • M1 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration
    • N8 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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