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Temporal causality and the dynamics of democracy, emigration and real income in Fiji


  • Paresh Kumar Narayan
  • Russell Smyth


This study is the first to explore temporal causality between democracy, emigration and real income in Fiji within a multivariate cointegration model. We find three long run relationships between democracy, emigration and real income. In the long run there is evidence that migration and democracy Granger cause real GDP in Fiji; real GDP and democracy Granger cause migration from Fiji and that real GDP and migration Granger cause democracy in Fiji. In the short run we find unidirectional Granger causality running from migration to real GDP and from democracy to real GDP, but neutrality between democracy and migration in the short run. We also extend the analysis to examine the degree of exogeneity of the variables beyond the sample period through considering the decomposition of variance and impulse response functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Temporal causality and the dynamics of democracy, emigration and real income in Fiji," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 245-261.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:19:y:2005:i:2:p:245-261
    DOI: 10.1080/02692170500031356

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Akinola Ezekiel Morakinyo & Mabutho Sibanda, 2016. "Non-Performing Loans and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Dynamic Analysis," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, pages 61-81.
    2. Prasad, Arti & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Jashwini, 2007. "Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6506-6513, December.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwar & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "On the validity of the Keynesian Absolute Income hypothesis in Pakistan: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 290-296.
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-411 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwer & AROURI, Mohamed El Hedi & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Does The Keynesian Absolute Income Hypothesis Exist in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 47923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2013.
    6. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Singh, Baljeet, 2007. "The electricity consumption and GDP nexus for the Fiji Islands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1141-1150, November.
    7. P K Narayan & S Narayan, 2008. "Estimating the Demand for Money in an Unstable Open Economy: The Case of the Fiji Islands," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(1), pages 71-91, March.
    8. Libman, Alexander & Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Yadav, Gaurav, 2013. "Are human rights and economic well-being substitutes? The evidence from migration patterns across the Indian states," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 139-164.

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    Fiji; democracy; migration; cointegration; causality;


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