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Exports and growth: is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies?

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  • Jang Jin

Abstract

This paper re-examines the export-led growth hypothesis using provincial data. Unlike other studies that concentrate on country-level data, this study investigates the validity of the hypothesis for four largest provinces in Korea: Seoul, Kyunggee, Kyungnam, and Pusan. The causal implication of the export-led growth hypothesis is generally supported for all provinces in the sample. The framework of analysis is two- and four-variable autoregressive models that include provincial exports, provincial output, terms of trade, and national output shocks. Granger causal orderings from exports to output growth are generally supported in bivariate causal models. In multivariate models, variance decompositions and impulse response functions further indicate that export growth has a significant impact on output growth for all provinces although a feedback effect from output to export growth appears in Seoul and the Kyungnam province.

Suggested Citation

  • Jang Jin, 2002. "Exports and growth: is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 63-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:1:p:63-76
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840010025632
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    1. Hansen, B.E., 1990. "A Powerful, Simple Test For Cointegration Using Cochrane- Orcutt," RCER Working Papers 230, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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    1. Hasan Vergil & M. Erdem Ozgur, 2013. "American Growth and Napoleonic Wars," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(5), pages 649-666, September.
    2. Narayan, S. & Sriananthakumar, S. & Islam, S.Z., 2014. "Stock market integration of emerging Asian economies: Patterns and causes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 19-31.
    3. Richard V. Adkisson & Eduardo Saucedo, 2010. "Merchandise Exports and Job Quality, Evidence From the States," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 24(3), pages 231-242, August.
    4. Tsigas, Marinos E. & Boughner, Devry S., 2003. "The U.S. Sugar Program versus Bilateral and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," Conference papers 331131, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Willyam Cáceres Rodríguez & Omaira Inés Agudelo Cely2 & Ricardo Alonso Tejedor Estupiñán3, 2018. "Las exportaciones y el crecimiento económico en Boyacá - Colombia 1980-2015," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 37(65), pages 175-211, February.
    6. AfDB AfDB, 2005. "Working Paper 76 - Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An Application of Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Egypt, 1977 - 2003," Working Paper Series 2210, African Development Bank.
    7. AfDB AfDB, 2005. "Working Paper 76 - Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An Application of Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Egypt, 1977 - 2003," Working Paper Series 2290, African Development Bank.
    8. Jaime Andrés Collazos & Pedro Luis Rosero, 2010. "¿Posee el Valle del Cauca una economía transformadora de importaciones orientadas a la Exportación?," Documentos de Políticas Públicas 6880, Universidad Icesi.
    9. Saima Siddiqui & Sameena Zehra & Sadia Majeed & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2008. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: A Reinvestigation Using the Bounds Test," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 59-80, Jul-Dec.
    10. Mehmet Akif KARA, 2020. "Testing the Hypothesis of Export-Oriented Growth at the Regional Level in Turkey," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(45).
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & You, Kefei & Chen, Lei, 2019. "Global and regional stock market integration in Asia: A panel convergence approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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