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American Growth and Napoleonic Wars

  • Hasan Vergil


    (Department of Economics, Bülent Ecevit University, Turkey)

  • M. Erdem Ozgur


    (Department of Economics, Dokuz Eylül University, Turkey)

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    Four years after the French Revolution, in 1793 a series of wars among France and other major powers of Europe began and they lasted until 1815. There is disagreement among economic historians about the effects of these wars on the trend of US economic growth. This paper aims to answer the following question. Did America as a neutral nation take advantage of economic possibilities caused by Europe at war through trade? To put it differently, this paper questions whether there was an export-led growth due to the war. To answer this question, we re-examined the export-led growth hypothesis for the period 1790-1860 using the ARDL methodology. Based on this methodology, a cointegrated relationship is found among the variables of real GDP, labor, exports and exchange rates. The results suggest that the economic growth of the US was not export-driven. In addition, parallel to the results of unit root tests with structural breaks, the coefficient of the dummy variable was statistically significant in the long run, implying that the war did have a significant effect on the economic growth trend of the US.

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    Article provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.

    Volume (Year): 60 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 649-666

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    Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:60:y:2013:i:5:p:649-666
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    1. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    2. Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2005. "The Worldwide Economic Impact of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars," NBER Working Papers 11344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Exports and economic growth: The African case," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 831-835, June.
    4. Marta C. N. Simões, 2011. "Education Composition and Growth: A Pooled Mean Group Analysis of OECD Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(4), pages 455-471, December.
    5. Marin, Dalia, 1990. "Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 362, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Antoine Brunet, 2009. "A Pertinent Analytic Method to Correctly Measure Contributions to Growth in Gross Domestic Product," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 397-408, September.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    8. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Herzer, Dierk & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 20, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    9. Goldin, Claudia D. & Lewis, Frank D., 1980. "The role of exports in American economic growth during the napoleonic wars, 1793 to 1807," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 6-25, January.
    10. Taylor, George Rogers, 1964. "American Economic Growth Before 1840: An Exploratory Essay," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(04), pages 427-444, December.
    11. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jang Jin, 2002. "Exports and growth: is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for provincial economies?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 63-76.
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