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Estimating the equity premium

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  • M. C. Freeman
  • I. R. Davidson

Abstract

Accurate estimation of the equity premium (the expected difference between the returns to a well-diversified stock market portfolio and a riskfree asset) is of central importance in many applications of finance theory including project appraisal and portfolio selection. The standard approach is to take the average observed excess returns to the market over some recent time period (sometimes referred to as the ex post equity premium) and apply this as an unbiased estimate of the ex ante equity premium. The paper reviews the problems associated with such an approach and contrasts it with alternative theoretical techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • M. C. Freeman & I. R. Davidson, 1999. "Estimating the equity premium," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 236-246.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:5:y:1999:i:3:p:236-246
    DOI: 10.1080/135184799337073
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Seth Armitage, 2004. "Returns after personal tax on UK equity and gilts, 1919-1998," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 23-43.
    3. Schröder, David, 2005. "The Implied Equity Risk Premium: An Evaluation of Empirical Methods," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 13/2005, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    4. Mario Situm, 2021. "Determination of expected cost of equity with the CAPM: Theoretical extension using the law of error propagation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 77-84, January.
    5. Rui Alpalhao & Paulo Alves, 2005. "The Portuguese equity risk premium: what we know and what we don't know," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 489-498.

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