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The tick/volatility ratio as a determinant of the compass rose pattern

  • Chun Lee
  • Ike Mathur
  • Kimberly Gleason
Registered author(s):

    This study provides evidence that low frequency data masks certain returns phenomena in the foreign exchange (forex) market. It is shown that the compass rose pattern is entirely absent in daily returns in the spot and futures forex markets. In contrast, the intraday returns, especially those for holding periods of less than an hour, clearly exhibit the pattern. Monte Carlo investigation of the tick/volatility ratio provides convincing evidence that the pattern appears only if the tick/volatility ratio is above some threshold level. Since intraday returns have a ratio above the threshold value, they exhibit the pattern. On the other hand, the absence of the pattern in daily returns is due to the fact that the spot and futures currency returns examined have a ratio much smaller than the threshold value. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the tick/volatility ratio is a determinant of the compass rose pattern. The economic implications of this pattern are discussed.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1351847032000137438
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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 93-109

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:93-109
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    1. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 383-408, September.
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    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Conditional Leptokurtosis and Non-Linear Dependence in Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 581-601, October.
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    6. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 1999-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Crack, Timothy Falcon & Ledoit, Olivier, 1996. " Robust Structure without Predictability: The "Compass Rose" Pattern of the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 751-62, June.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    9. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & Schwarz, Matthias & Morgenegg, Claude, 1990. "Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 1189-1208, December.
    10. Elyasiani, Elyas & Kocagil, Ahmet E., 2001. "Interdependence and dynamics in currency futures markets: A multivariate analysis of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1161-1186, June.
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