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Reliability of the Box-Jenkins model for forecasting construction demand covering times of economic austerity

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  • Ryan Fan
  • S. Thomas Ng
  • James Wong

Abstract

As a driving engine for growth, the construction industry plays an important role in a country's economic development process. Despite that, the industry is vulnerable to cyclical oscillation and at times more fundamental changes in work volume when the regional or global economy is hit by unforeseen events. In order to formulate appropriate policies and directions to help ease the impact of a fluctuating volume of construction work, a model that can reliably predict the work of various construction sectors after any economic turbulence would be extremely useful. In this study, the Box-Jenkins approach is used for model development due to its simplicity and sound theoretical background. The results illustrate that the Box-Jenkins models can reliably predict the medium-term total construction demand and residential demand covering a turbulent period of ups and downs in construction demand. A multiple regression model is also developed to compare against the modelling reliability of the Box-Jenkins model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Fan & S. Thomas Ng & James Wong, 2010. "Reliability of the Box-Jenkins model for forecasting construction demand covering times of economic austerity," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 241-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:28:y:2010:i:3:p:241-254
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190903369899
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patricia M. Hillebrandt, 2000. "Economic Theory and the Construction Industry," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-37248-1, September.
    2. Mr. Christoph Duenwald, 2000. "Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 2000/002, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Kunnert, 2013. "Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich: Prognose 2012/13 und regionale Entwicklung 2006/2011. Teilbericht 2," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67110, April.
    2. Panova, Yulia & Hilmola, Olli-Pekka, 2015. "Justification and evaluation of dry port investments in Russia," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 61-70.
    3. Andrea Kunnert, 2012. "Prognose der Wohnbaubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich 2012 und 2013. Teilbericht 1," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67109, April.
    4. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2014. "Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2014 und 2015," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58602, April.
    5. Qiance Liu & Litao Liu & Xiaojie Liu & Shenggong Li & Gang Liu, 2021. "Building stock dynamics and the impact of construction bubble and bust on employment in China," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1631-1643, December.
    6. Le Ma & Chunlu Liu, 2014. "Did the late-2000s financial crisis influence construction labour productivity?," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(10), pages 1030-1047, October.
    7. Mykhailo LUCHKO & Stanisław SZMITKA & Yuriy PYNDA & Lyudmyla KUTS, 2020. "Expert Analysis And Impact Assessment Of The Construction Sector Enterprises On The Economy: The Experience Of Ukraine," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 133-144, June.
    8. Antti Kurvinen & Arto Saari & Juhani Heljo & Eero Nippala, 2021. "Modeling Building Stock Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Dieter Pennerstorfer & Andrea Kunnert & Peter Huber, 2014. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2013/2015 – Teilbericht 2," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58600, April.
    10. Andrea Kunnert, 2013. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2013/14 (Teilbericht 1)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58599, April.
    11. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2015. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2014 bis 2016," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58604, April.
    12. Andrea Kunnert, 2013. "Prognose der Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich 2013 und 2014. Teilbericht 4," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67111, April.
    13. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2015. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2015/16 und regionale Entwicklung 2009/2014," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58605, April.
    14. Dieter Pennerstorfer & Andrea Kunnert & Peter Huber, 2014. "Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2014 und 2015 und regionale Entwicklung 2008 bis 2013," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58601, April.
    15. Andrea Kunnert, 2011. "Prognose der Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich 2009 bis 2011," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41257, April.
    16. Eda Ustaoglu & Filipe Batista e Silva & Carlo Lavalle, 2020. "Quantifying and modelling industrial and commercial land-use demand in France," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 519-549, January.
    17. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2014. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2014 und 2015," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58603, April.
    18. Andrea Kunnert, 2013. "Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich: Prognose 2012/2014 und regionale Entwicklung 2006/2011," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46678, April.

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