IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v42y2010i6p727-738.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why it is possible that wages and pensions can increase simultaneously in an ageing and stagnating % A theoretical investigation and a simulation of the German case

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Kesting

Abstract

This article investigates the possibilities and restrictions of inter-generational income development for ageing and stagnating economies. In a first step, the basic logic of ageing will be investigated in a simple dynamic model. In particular, the investigation points out the existence of the demographic distribution mass and its meaning for inter-generational income development. It proves that the demographic distribution mass makes it possible for wages and pensions to grow simultaneously in an ageing and stagnating economy. In a second step, the development of wages and pensions is simulated for the German case through to the year 2050. It is demonstrated that (under normal circumstances) it can be expected that the burden from ageing can almost always be over-compensated by the economic growth of the respective year. Against this background, ageing appears to be rather a problem of acceptance and income distribution than that of real income reductions.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Kesting, 2010. "Why it is possible that wages and pensions can increase simultaneously in an ageing and stagnating % A theoretical investigation and a simulation of the German case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(6), pages 727-738.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:6:p:727-738
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701720796
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840701720796
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840701720796?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holger Bonin, 2001. "Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2001 German Pension Reform," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 26(4), pages 547-564, October.
    2. Homburg, Stefan, 1988. "Theorie der Alterssicherung: Kapitel 1. Einleitung," EconStor Books, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 92902, September.
    3. Börsch-Supan Axel, 2000. "Was lehrt uns die Empirie in Sachen Rentenreform?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 1(4), pages 431-451, November.
    4. Monika Bütler, 1999. "Milestones in the History of the Swiss Pension System: A Politico-Economic Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 135(III), pages 369-385, September.
    5. Ayfer Karayel, 2006. "The intragenerationally redistributive effects of the retirement insurance scheme in Turkey before and after the 1999 reform," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 441-448.
    6. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Social Security and Declining Labor-Force Participation in Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 173-178, May.
    7. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "A Model under Siege: A Case Study of the German Retirement Insurance System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages 24-45, February.
    8. Homburg Stefan, 2000. "Ein Schnellkurs in Sachen Rentenreform," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 1(4), pages 379-382, November.
    9. Yaacov Lavi & Avia Spak, 1999. "The impact of pension schemes on saving in Israel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 761-774.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Christina Benita Wilke, 2003. "Der Nachhaltigkeitsfaktor und andere Formelmodifikationen zur langfristigen Stabilisierung des Beitragssatzes zur GRV," MEA discussion paper series 03030, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Wilke, Christina Benita, 2007. "How an Unfunded Pension System looks like Defined Benefits but works like Defined Contributions: The German Pension Reform," MEA discussion paper series 07126, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Christina Benita Wilke, 2003. "The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be," MEA discussion paper series 03034, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "Rentabilitätsvergleiche im Umlage- und Kapitaldeckungsverfahren : Konzepte, empirische Ergebnisse, sozialpolitische Konsequenzen," Discussion Papers 585, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    5. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2002. "Kann die Finanz- und Sozialpolitik die Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsalterung auf den Arbeitsmarkt lindern?," MEA discussion paper series 02012, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    6. Axel Boersch-Supan, 2001. "Labor Market Effects of Population Aging," NBER Working Papers 8640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Axel Börsch‐Supan, 2000. "Was lehrt uns die Empirie in Sachen Rentenreform?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(4), pages 431-451, November.
    8. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Christina Benita Wilke, 2003. "How to make a Defined Benefit System Sustainable: The Sustainability Factor in the German Benefit Indexation Formula," MEA discussion paper series 03037, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    9. Hubrich, Stefan & Tivig, Thusnelda & Stubben, Hans-Dieter, 2007. "Pensionsverpflichtungen: Ein unternehmerischer Risikofaktor?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 80, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    10. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2002. "Labor market effects of population aging," MEA discussion paper series 02011, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    11. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan, 2004. "Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 393-421, September.
    12. Axel Börsch-Supan & Reinhold Schnabel & Simone Kohnz & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2004. "Micro-Modeling of Retirement Decisions in Germany," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 285-344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Giesecke, Matthias & Kind, Michael, 2013. "Bridge Unemployment in Germany: Response in Labour Supply to an Increased Early Retirement Age," Ruhr Economic Papers 410, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Berkel, Barbara & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2003. "Renteneintrittsentscheidungen in Deutschland: Langfristige Auswirkungen verschiedener Reformoptionen," MEA discussion paper series 03031, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    15. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2003. "What are NDC Pension Systems? What Do They Bring to Reform Strategies?," MEA discussion paper series 03042, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    16. Axel Boersch-Supan & Christina B. Wilke, 2004. "The German Public Pension System: How it Was, How it Will Be," NBER Working Papers 10525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Matthias Giesecke & Michael Kind, 2013. "Bridge Unemployment in Germany: Response in Labour Supply to an Increased Early Retirement Age," Ruhr Economic Papers 0410, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    18. repec:zbw:rwirep:0410 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1997. "Rates of Return of the German Pay-As-You-Go Pension System," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-56, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    20. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 1997. "Das deutsche Rentenversicherungssystem : Probleme und Perspektiven," Papers 97-31, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    21. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Rodepeter, Ralf & Schnabel, Reinhold & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "The German Savings Puzzle," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 15-38, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:6:p:727-738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.