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Bootstrap testing of the expectations hypothesis with the term structure of interest rates

  • Kelvin Balcombe
  • Richard Tiffin

The Expectations Hypothesis (EH) for the term structure of UK monthly interest rates is tested using Johansen's procedure. Differing results are found depending on the method of lag length selection. The application of the stationary bootstrap reconciles these results, lending support to the Expectations Hypothesis.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 9 (2002)
Issue (Month): 9 ()
Pages: 563-566

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:9:p:563-566
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  1. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  3. Li, Hongyi & Maddala, G. S., 1997. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 297-318, October.
  4. Jacobson, T. & Vredin, A. & Warne, A., 1993. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," Papers 558, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  7. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1998. "Interest Rates in Germany and the UK: Cointegration and Error Correction Models," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(1), pages 27-43, January.
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