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Do stock returns hedge inflation at long horizons?

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  • Adrian Austin
  • Swarna Dutt

Abstract

We investigate the long-horizon relationship between market returns and inflation in the United States. Conventional tests for long horizon predictability may reject the null too frequently when the predictor variable is highly persistent and endogenous and there are overlapping observations. We use a recently developed econometric technique designed to overcome these problems. We find little to no evidence that securities are able to hedge inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrian Austin & Swarna Dutt, 2016. "Do stock returns hedge inflation at long horizons?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(13), pages 936-939, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:23:y:2016:i:13:p:936-939
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1122725
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olesya V. Grishchenko & Jing-zhi Huang, 2012. "Inflation risk premium: evidence from the TIPS market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    3. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    4. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March.
    5. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2011. "New Methods for Inference in Long-Horizon Regressions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 815-839, June.
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