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How predictable are the FIFA worldcup football outcomes? An empirical analysis

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  • Saumik Paul
  • Ronita Mitra

Abstract

Since 1993 the Federation of International Football Association's (FIFA) monthly world ranking system for senior national football teams has become a reliable source to judge a team's potentiality in football. In the past four FIFA worldcup football tournaments from 1994 to 2006, the top seeded team never won the FIFA worldcup except in 1994 when Brazil won as the number one team. This article examines the strength of this element of uncertainty in FIFA worldcup using two empirical models. We find empirical evidence of the fact that in spite of the number of cases of surprise upsets from the lower ranked teams or poor performance by the top seeded teams; overall the results are strongly in favour of the higher ranked teams.

Suggested Citation

  • Saumik Paul & Ronita Mitra, 2008. "How predictable are the FIFA worldcup football outcomes? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1171-1176.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:15:y:2008:i:15:p:1171-1176
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850601007117
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benno Torgler, 2004. "The Economics of the FIFA Football Worldcup," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 287-300, May.
    2. Robert Houston & Dennis Wilson, 2002. "Income, leisure and proficiency: an economic study of football performance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 939-943.
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    4. Mark Gius & Donn Johnson, 1998. "An empirical investigation of wage discrimination in professional basketball," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(11), pages 703-705.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wladimir Andreff & Madeleine Andreff, 2015. "Economic prediction of sport performances from the Beijing Olympics to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa: the notion of surprising sporting outcomes," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01244495, HAL.
    2. Zaytseva, I., 2018. "Social Capital as a Factor of Sport Achievements: The Case of National Football Teams," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 34-60.
    3. Plácido Rodríguez & Stefan Késenne & Ruud Koning (ed.), 2015. "The Economics of Competitive Sports," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15770.
    4. L.F.M. Groot & J. Ferwerda, 2014. "Soccer jersey sponsors and the world cup," Working Papers 14-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    5. Wladimir Andreff & Madeleine Andreff, 2015. "Economic prediction of sport performances from the Beijing Olympics to the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa: the notion of surprising sporting outcomes," Post-Print halshs-01244495, HAL.
    6. Y.E. Akgündüz & M.R. van den Berg, 2013. "Make or buy? Human capital accumulation strategies in European club football," Working Papers 13-17, Utrecht School of Economics.

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