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International growth and volatility in historical perspective

  • Mark Siegler

This paper studies the relationship between the volatility and growth of real GDP using a newly constructed panel data set from twelve countries over the 1870 to 1929 period. In addition, many other variables are examined that are related to economic growth. The goal has been to uncover robust empirical regularities on this issue for the period prior to the Great Depression - a period which has been relatively neglected in previous empirical work. The main finding is that there is a robust negative partial correlation between volatility and growth, after controlling for other factors. This result is consistent with recent empirical evidence on the post-World War II period.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 67-71

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:67-71
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  1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  2. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  5. Peter L. Rousseau & Richard Sylla, 2001. "Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization," NBER Working Papers 8323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September.
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