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Influence of Geomorphological Parameters on Flash Flood Susceptibility Analyzed using a Coupled Approach of HEC-HMS Model and Logistic Regression

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenyue Han

    (Tianjin University)

  • Fawen Li

    (Tianjin University)

  • Chengshuai Liu

    (Zhengzhou University)

  • Xueli Zhang

    (Zhengzhou University)

  • Caihong Hu

    (Zhengzhou University)

Abstract

Flash floods pose significant challenges to the stable development of human society, highlighting the need for effective assessment and management of flash flood susceptibility (FFS). This research aims to explore the influence of geomorphological features on FFS using sub-basins as evaluation units, which provide scientific support for accurate flash flood early warning based on disaster monitoring and planning. Firstly, the Dali River Basin was chosen as the study area to simulate the flood processes under different rainfall scenarios using the HEC-HMS hydrological model. Then, the results of the flash flood occurrence under a 40mm-1h rainfall scenario were used to analyze the correlation between basin geomorphological characteristics and FFS, employing only-one-variable Logistic Regression (LR). Additionally, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) was employed to select the relevant basin parameters. Subsequently, an FFS assessment model based on selected parameters was developed using LR. This study revealed a significant correlation between the basin shape and the drainage network with FFS, indicating that basins with an equidimensional shape and a well-developed drainage network are more prone to flash floods. The FFS assessment model constructed using geomorphological parameters achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.917 in the Dali River Basin, which can be effectively utilized for assessing FFS in the Dali River and other hydrologically similar basins. Graphical Abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenyue Han & Fawen Li & Chengshuai Liu & Xueli Zhang & Caihong Hu, 2025. "Influence of Geomorphological Parameters on Flash Flood Susceptibility Analyzed using a Coupled Approach of HEC-HMS Model and Logistic Regression," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(7), pages 3031-3051, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:7:d:10.1007_s11269-024-04079-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-04079-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davor Kvočka & Roger A. Falconer & Michaela Bray, 2016. "Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1569-1599, December.
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    3. Tao Jiang & Qiulian Wei & Ming Zhong & Jianfeng Li, 2024. "An Objective Framework for Bivariate Risk Analysis of Flash Floods Under the Compound Effect of Rainfall Characteristics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(6), pages 2015-2037, April.
    4. Hüseyin Akay, 2024. "Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using Information Fusion Paradigm Integrated with Decision Trees," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(13), pages 5365-5383, October.
    5. Pardis Ziaee & Mohammad Javad Abedini, 2023. "Investigating the Effect of Spatial and Temporal Variabilities of Rainfall on Catchment Response," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(13), pages 5343-5366, October.
    6. Romulus Costache & Alireza Arabameri & Iulia Costache & Anca Crăciun & Binh Thai Pham, 2022. "New Machine Learning Ensemble for Flood Susceptibility Estimation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4765-4783, September.
    7. Wenlin Yuan & Lu Lu & Hanzhen Song & Xiang Zhang & Linjuan Xu & Chengguo Su & Meiqi Liu & Denghua Yan & Zening Wu, 2022. "Study on the Early Warning for Flash Flood Based on Random Rainfall Pattern," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1587-1609, March.
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