IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v38y2024i6d10.1007_s11269-024-03734-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Objective Framework for Bivariate Risk Analysis of Flash Floods Under the Compound Effect of Rainfall Characteristics

Author

Listed:
  • Tao Jiang

    (Sun Yat-Sen University)

  • Qiulian Wei

    (GuangXi Insititute of Natural Resources Survey and Monitoring)

  • Ming Zhong

    (Sun Yat-Sen University
    Sun Yat-Sen University & Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

  • Jianfeng Li

    (Hong Kong Baptist University)

Abstract

The rainfall characteristics of flash floods are highly sensitive to the joint impacts of different rainfall event features. In this study, we propose an objective framework for identifying rainfall characteristics for flash floods and assessing the risks while considering the combined impacts of multiple rainfall characteristics. The flash flood events are first classified into different types in terms of flood intensity and process using fuzzy C-means clustering with a subtractive clustering algorithm. Strong association rules between rainfall indices and flood types are subsequently identified based on an association rule mining method. The rainfall indices that strongly affect flash flood processes are obtained based on these association rules. Based on the results of the association analysis, the risks of different types of flash floods under different combinations of key rainfall indices are evaluated based on the Bayesian formula and copula function. The association rule analysis with single and multiple rainfall indices demonstrates that the maximum 12-h rainfall intensity and total antecedent cumulative rainfall are the major rainfall characteristics that affect flash flood processes in the study area. We also examine the risk of flash floods under different combinations of maximum 12-h rainfall intensity and total cumulative rainfall. This study provides an effective and quantitative approach to improve the risk analysis of flash floods and advances its application in the risk management of future flash floods.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Jiang & Qiulian Wei & Ming Zhong & Jianfeng Li, 2024. "An Objective Framework for Bivariate Risk Analysis of Flash Floods Under the Compound Effect of Rainfall Characteristics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(6), pages 2015-2037, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03734-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03734-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-024-03734-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-024-03734-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mahrouz Nourali, 2023. "Improved Treatment of Model Prediction Uncertainty: Estimating Rainfall using Discrete Wavelet Transform and Principal Component Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(11), pages 4211-4231, September.
    2. Ming Zhong & Ting Zeng & Tao Jiang & Huan Wu & Xiaohong Chen & Yang Hong, 2021. "A Copula-Based Multivariate Probability Analysis for Flash Flood Risk under the Compound Effect of Soil Moisture and Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 83-98, January.
    3. Ming Zhong & Jiao Wang & Liang Gao & Kairong Lin & Yang Hong, 2019. "Fuzzy Risk Assessment of Flash Floods Using a Cloud-Based Information Diffusion Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2537-2553, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu Xiaobing & Li Chenliang & Huo Tongzhao & Ji Zhonghui, 2021. "Information diffusion theory-based approach for the risk assessment of meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2337-2362, July.
    2. Mohammad Nazeri-Tahroudi & Yousef Ramezani & Carlo Michele & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2022. "Bivariate Simulation of Potential Evapotranspiration Using Copula-GARCH Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 1007-1024, February.
    3. Chen An & Ming Dou & Jianling Zhang & Guiqiu Li, 2021. "Method for Analyzing Copula-Based Water Shortage Risk in Multisource Water Supply Cities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4877-4894, November.
    4. Georgios K. Koulinas & Alexandros S. Xanthopoulos & Konstantinos A. Sidas & Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis, 2021. "Risks Ranking in a Desalination Plant Construction Project with a Hybrid AHP, Risk Matrix, and Simulation-Based Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3221-3233, August.
    5. Ming Zhong & Kairong Lin & Guoping Tang & Qian Zhang & Yang Hong & Xiaohong Chen, 2020. "A Framework to Evaluate Community Resilience to Urban Floods: A Case Study in Three Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Wenlin Yuan & Lu Lu & Hanzhen Song & Xiang Zhang & Linjuan Xu & Chengguo Su & Meiqi Liu & Denghua Yan & Zening Wu, 2022. "Study on the Early Warning for Flash Flood Based on Random Rainfall Pattern," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1587-1609, March.
    7. Longxia Qian & Yong Zhao & Jianhong Yang & Hanlin Li & Hongrui Wang & ChengZu Bai, 2022. "A New Estimation Method for Copula Parameters for Multivariate Hydrological Frequency Analysis With Small Sample Sizes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1141-1157, March.
    8. Homa Razmkhah & Alireza Fararouie & Amin Rostami Ravari, 2022. "Multivariate Flood Frequency Analysis Using Bivariate Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 729-743, January.
    9. Poornima Unnikrishnan & Kumaraswamy Ponnambalam & Nirupama Agrawal & Fakhri Karray, 2023. "Joint Flood Risks in the Grand River Watershed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-14, June.
    10. Ziyu Li & Xianqi Zhang, 2024. "A Novel Coupled Model for Monthly Rainfall Prediction Based on ESMD-EWT-SVD-LSTM," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(9), pages 3297-3312, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03734-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.