IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v39y2025i4d10.1007_s11269-024-04024-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario Neutral Based Multilateral Decision-Making Framework for Drought Management

Author

Listed:
  • Jiheun Kim

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Yeonju Kim

    (University of Seoul
    University of Connecticut)

  • Dong Hyeok Park

    (Research Institute, Raon Technology & Consulting)

  • Tae-Woong Kim

    (Hanyang University (ERICA))

  • Seung Beom Seo

    (University of Seoul)

Abstract

Drought, defined by an imbalance between water supply and demand resulting from both natural and human-induced factors, necessitates the adoption of robust water management practices. These practices must account not only for potential inflows but also for demand conditions and opportunities for collaboration with nearby water facilities to ensure a reliable water supply. This study introduces a Scenario-Neutral Multilateral Decision-Making framework that addresses the impacts of demand and inter-agency collaboration on water facilities. It further explores how different operational policies influence end users, enabling an analysis of the equity and effectiveness of these operations. Three operational policies, derived from distinct objective functions, were compared across various scenarios for a pilot basin. The basin average reliability was found to be sensitive to both climate and demand conditions, whereas net profit exhibited a greater responsiveness to climate variations. Through inter-agency cooperation, the overall water supply reliability of the basin is anticipated to improve by 5–10%.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiheun Kim & Yeonju Kim & Dong Hyeok Park & Tae-Woong Kim & Seung Beom Seo, 2025. "Scenario Neutral Based Multilateral Decision-Making Framework for Drought Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(4), pages 1503-1519, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-024-04024-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-04024-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-024-04024-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-024-04024-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wenhua Li & Guo Zhang & Tao Zhang & Shengjun Huang, 2020. "Knee Point-Guided Multiobjective Optimization Algorithm for Microgrid Dynamic Energy Management," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-11, November.
    2. Mishra, Vimal & Shah, Reepal & Garg, Amit, 2016. "Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh: Indicators, Impacts and Adaptation," IIMA Working Papers WP2016-05-05, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    3. Wang, Lizhong & Fang, Liping & Hipel, Keith W., 2008. "Basin-wide cooperative water resources allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(3), pages 798-817, November.
    4. Hu, Zhineng & Chen, Yazhen & Yao, Liming & Wei, Changting & Li, Chaozhi, 2016. "Optimal allocation of regional water resources: From a perspective of equity–efficiency tradeoff," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 102-113.
    5. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
    6. Ahmed Rafique & Steven Burian & Daniyal Hassan & Rakhshinda Bano, 2020. "Analysis of Operational Changes of Tarbela Reservoir to Improve the Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Control Objectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Aaron T. Wolf, 1999. "Criteria for equitable allocations: the heart of international water conflict," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(1), pages 3-30, February.
    8. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Erratum: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 171-171, February.
    9. Cullis, J. & van Koppen, Barbara, 2007. "Applying the Gini Coefficient to measure inequality of water use in the Olifants River water management area, South Africa," IWMI Research Reports H040313, International Water Management Institute.
    10. Zhang, Shuo & Kang, Yan & Gao, Xuan & Chen, Peiru & Cheng, Xiao & Song, Songbai & Li, Lingjie, 2023. "Optimal reservoir operation and risk analysis of agriculture water supply considering encounter uncertainty of precipitation in irrigation area and runoff from upstream," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    11. Distefano, Tiziano & Kelly, Scott, 2017. "Are we in deep water? Water scarcity and its limits to economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 130-147.
    12. Scrucca, Luca, 2013. "GA: A Package for Genetic Algorithms in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 53(i04).
    13. D’Exelle, Ben & Lecoutere, Els & Van Campenhout, Bjorn, 2012. "Equity-Efficiency Trade-Offs in Irrigation Water Sharing: Evidence from a Field Lab in Rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2537-2551.
    14. Jang Hyun Sung & Donghae Baek & Young Ryu & Seung Beom Seo & Kee-Won Seong, 2021. "Effects of Hydro-Meteorological Factors on Streamflow Withdrawal for Irrigation in Yeongsan River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, April.
    15. Ward, Frank A. & Pulido-Velázquez, Manuel, 2008. "Efficiency, equity, and sustainability in a water quantity-quality optimization model in the Rio Grande basin," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 23-37, May.
    16. Xiao-jun Wang & Jian-yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & En-hong Guan & Yong-xiang Wu & Juan Gao & Rui-min He, 2016. "Adaptation to climate change impacts on water demand," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 81-99, January.
    17. Jin Hyuck Kim & Jang Hyun Sung & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2022. "Correction to: Future Hydrological Drought Analysis Considering Agricultural Water Withdrawal Under SSP Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 2931-2931, July.
    18. Jin Hyuck Kim & Jang Hyun Sung & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2022. "Future Hydrological Drought Analysis Considering Agricultural Water Withdrawal Under SSP Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 2913-2930, July.
    19. Vimal Mishra & Reepal Shah & Amit Garg, 2016. "Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh: Indicators, Impacts and Adaptation," Working Papers id:10844, eSocialSciences.
    20. Richard Seager & Mingfang Ting & Cuihua Li & Naomi Naik & Ben Cook & Jennifer Nakamura & Haibo Liu, 2013. "Projections of declining surface-water availability for the southwestern United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 482-486, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Azreen Harina Azman & Nurul Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat & M. A. Malek, 2022. "Analysis of Linear Scaling Method in Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(1), pages 171-179, January.
    2. Mohammad Naser Sediqi & Daisuke Komori, 2023. "Assessing Water Resource Sustainability in the Kabul River Basin: A Standardized Runoff Index and Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability Framework Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Wade, Christopher M. & Baker, Justin S. & Van Houtven, George & Cai, Yongxia & Lord, Benjamin & Castellanos, Edwin & Leiva, Benjamín & Fuentes, Gabriela & Alfaro, Gabriela & Kondash, AJ & Henry, Candi, 2022. "Opportunities and spatial hotspots for irrigation expansion in Guatemala to support development goals in the food-energy-water nexus," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    4. Jale Amanuel Dufera & Tewodros Addisu Yate & Tadesse Tujuba Kenea, 2023. "Spatiotemporal analysis of drought in Oromia regional state of Ethiopia over the period 1989 to 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1569-1609, June.
    5. Jinhua Wen & Yian Hua & Chenkai Cai & Shiwu Wang & Helong Wang & Xinyan Zhou & Jian Huang & Jianqun Wang, 2023. "Probabilistic Forecast and Risk Assessment of Flash Droughts Based on Numeric Weather Forecast: A Case Study in Zhejiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Shiqing Wu, 2021. "Quantification of drought severity change in Ethiopia during 1952–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5096-5121, April.
    7. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," Working Papers hal-04064759, HAL.
    8. Dingcai Yin & Xiaohua Gou & Haijiang Yang & Kai Wang & Jie Liu & Yiran Zhang & Linlin Gao, 2023. "Elevation-dependent tree growth response to recent warming and drought on eastern Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-18, June.
    9. Zhongwen Xu & Liming Yao & Yin Long, 2020. "Climatic Impact Toward Regional Water Allocation and Transfer Strategies from Economic, Social and Environmental Perspectives," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Adeline Bichet & Arona Diedhiou & Benoit Hingray & Guillaume Evin & N’Datchoh Evelyne Touré & Klutse Nana Ama Browne & Kouakou Kouadio, 2020. "Assessing uncertainties in the regional projections of precipitation in CORDEX-AFRICA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 583-601, September.
    11. Trnka, Miroslav & Vizina, Adam & Hanel, Martin & Balek, Jan & Fischer, Milan & Hlavinka, Petr & Semerádová, Daniela & Štěpánek, Petr & Zahradníček, Pavel & Skalák, Petr & Eitzinger, Josef & Dubrovský,, 2022. "Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    12. Yu, Chaoqing & Huang, Xiao & Chen, Han & Huang, Guorui & Ni, Shaoqiang & Wright, Jonathon S. & Hall, Jim & Ciais, Philippe & Zhang, Jie & Xiao, Yuchen & Sun, Zhanli & Wang, Xuhui & Yu, Le, 2018. "Assessing the impacts of extreme agricultural droughts in China under climate and socioeconomic changes," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 6, pages 689-703.
    13. Ding, Yugang & Xu, Jiangmin, 2023. "Global vulnerability of agricultural commodities to climate risk: Evidence from satellite data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 669-687.
    14. Weili Duan & Bin He & Daniel Nover & Jingli Fan & Guishan Yang & Wen Chen & Huifang Meng & Chuanming Liu, 2016. "Floods and associated socioeconomic damages in China over the last century," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 401-413, May.
    15. Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano & Miquel Tomas-Burguera & Santiago Beguería & Fergus Reig & Borja Latorre & Marina Peña-Gallardo & M. Yolanda Luna & Ana Morata & José C. González-Hidalgo, 2017. "A High Resolution Dataset of Drought Indices for Spain," Data, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-10, June.
    16. Seung Taek Chae & Eun-Sung Chung & Jiping Jiang, 2024. "Enhancing Water Cycle Restoration through LID Practices Considering Climate Change: A Study on Permeable Pavement Planning by an Iterative MCDM Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(9), pages 3413-3428, July.
    17. Jinquan Li & Junmin Pei & Changming Fang & Bo Li & Ming Nie, 2024. "Drought may exacerbate dryland soil inorganic carbon loss under warming climate conditions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Sheng, Jichuan & Qiu, Wenge, 2022. "Water-use technical efficiency and income: Evidence from China's South-North Water Transfer Project," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Zefeng Chen & Weiguang Wang & Giovanni Forzieri & Alessandro Cescatti, 2024. "Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Bláhová, Monika & Fischer, Milan & Poděbradská, Markéta & Štěpánek, Petr & Balek, Jan & Zahradníček, Pavel & Kudláčková, Lucie & Žalud, Zdeněk & Trnka, Miroslav, 2024. "Testing the reliability of soil moisture forecast for its use in agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-024-04024-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.