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Explicit Stochastic Procedure for Developing Reservoir Storage-Yield-Reliability-Vulnerability Relationships

Author

Listed:
  • José Eduardo Santos Araújo

    (Federal University of Sergipe)

  • Alcigeimes B. Celeste

    (Federal University of Sergipe)

Abstract

In this study, refinements are introduced to the explicit stochastic Fletcher-Ponnambalam method applied to reservoir sizing, with a primary focus on the development of storage-yield-reliability-vulnerability (SYRV) relationships. Improvements to the original method include transitioning from annual to monthly analysis, providing insights into monthly reliabilities, probabilities of containment, deficit, spill, and statistical moments of storage. The model is further enhanced with estimates for monthly vulnerabilities, as well as first and second moments of deficit, spill and allocation, aspects previously unaddressed. To validate the model, historical natural flow data from the Sobradinho reservoir (Brazil) is utilized, and monthly simulations are conducted based on synthetic scenarios aligned with the Standard Operating Policy. The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics such as the error sum of squares and the mean squared error. Additionally, a residual sample (model minus simulation) is created to undergo parametric and non-parametric tests, confirming the adequacy of the model. The study also includes the development of SYR relationships and equations based on the model’s results.

Suggested Citation

  • José Eduardo Santos Araújo & Alcigeimes B. Celeste, 2025. "Explicit Stochastic Procedure for Developing Reservoir Storage-Yield-Reliability-Vulnerability Relationships," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 39(1), pages 245-270, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:39:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03970-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03970-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    2. Behrang Beiranvand & Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh, 2023. "A Systematic Review of Optimization of Dams Reservoir Operation Using the Meta-heuristic Algorithms," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3457-3526, July.
    3. Alcigeimes Celeste, 2015. "Reservoir Design Optimization Incorporating Performance Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(12), pages 4305-4318, September.
    4. Pedro Beça & António C. Rodrigues & João P. Nunes & Paulo Diogo & Babar Mujtaba, 2023. "Optimizing Reservoir Water Management in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3423-3437, July.
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