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Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Reservoir Management: Uncertainty and Adaptation for a Mountain Catchment in Northeast Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia Carvalho-Santos

    (Universidade de Aveiro
    Universidade do Porto)

  • António T. Monteiro

    (Universidade do Porto)

  • João C. Azevedo

    (Instituto Politécnico de Bragança)

  • João Pradinho Honrado

    (Universidade do Porto
    Universidade do Porto)

  • João Pedro Nunes

    (Universidade de Aveiro
    Universidade de Lisboa)

Abstract

Reservoirs often play an important role in mitigating water supply problems. However, the implications of climate change are not always considered in reservoir planning and management. This study aimed to address this challenge in the Alto Sabor watershed, northeast Portugal. The study analysed whether or not the shortage of water supply can be effectively addressed through the construction of a new reservoir (two-reservoir system) by considering future climate projections. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated against daily-observed discharge and reservoir volume, with a good agreement between model predictions and observations. Outputs from four General Circulation Models (GCM) for two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were statistically downscaled and bias-corrected with ground observations. A general increase in temperature is expected in the future while the change in precipitation is more uncertain as per the differences among climatic models. In general, annual precipitation would slightly decrease while seasonal changes would be more significant, with more precipitation in winter and much less in spring and summer. SWAT simulations suggest that the existence of two-reservoir will better solve the water supply problems under current climate conditions compared to a single-reservoir system. However in the future, the reliability of this solution will decrease, especially due to the variability of projections from the different climatic models. The solution to water supply problems in this region, adopted taking only present-day climate into account, will likely be inefficient for water supply management under future climate conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia Carvalho-Santos & António T. Monteiro & João C. Azevedo & João Pradinho Honrado & João Pedro Nunes, 2017. "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Reservoir Management: Uncertainty and Adaptation for a Mountain Catchment in Northeast Portugal," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3355-3370, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1672-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1672-z
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    3. Mahsa Mirdashtvan & Ali Najafinejad & Arash Malekian & Amir Sa’doddin, 2021. "Sustainable Water Supply and Demand Management in Semi-arid Regions: Optimizing Water Resources Allocation Based on RCPs Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(15), pages 5307-5324, December.
    4. Songphol Songsaengrit & Anongrit Kangrang, 2022. "Dynamic Rule Curves and Streamflow under Climate Change for Multipurpose Reservoir Operation Using Honey-Bee Mating Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
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    6. Satiprasad Sahoo & Anirban Dhar & Anupam Debsarkar & Biswajeet Pradhan & Abdullah M. Alamri, 2020. "Future Water Use Planning by Water Evaluation and Planning System Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4649-4664, December.

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