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Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method

Author

Listed:
  • İsmail Dabanlı

    (Istanbul Technical University
    Clemson University)

  • Zekai Şen

    (Istanbul Technical University)

  • Mehmet Öner Yeleğen

    (Fatih Sultan Mehmet Vakif University)

  • Eyüp Şişman

    (Yildiz Technical University)

  • Bülent Selek

    (State Hydraulic Works (DSI))

  • Yavuz Selim Güçlü

    (Istanbul Technical University
    King Abdulaziz University)

Abstract

Hydro-meteorological time series may include trend components mostly due to climate change since about three to four decades. Trend detection and identification in a better and refined manner are among the major current research topics in water resources domain. Even though different methodologies can be found for trend detection in literature, two well-known procedures are the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and recently innovative-Şen trend method, which provides different aspects of the trend. The theoretical basis and application of these two methods are completely different. The MK test gives a holistic monotonic trend without any categorization of the time series into a set of clusters, but the innovative-Şen method is based on cluster and provides categorical trend behavior in a given time series. The main purpose of this paper is to provide important differences between these two approaches and their possible similarities. The applications of the two approaches are given for hydro-meteorological records including relative humidity, temperature, precipitation and runoff from Ergene drainage basin in the north-western part of Turkey. It is observed that although MK trend test does not show significant trend almost in all the cases, the innovative-Şen approach yields trend categorizations as “very low”, “low”, “medium” “high” and “very high”, which should be taken into consideration in future flood (“very high”) and drought (“very low”) studies.

Suggested Citation

  • İsmail Dabanlı & Zekai Şen & Mehmet Öner Yeleğen & Eyüp Şişman & Bülent Selek & Yavuz Selim Güçlü, 2016. "Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5193-5203, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1478-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1478-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hossein Tabari & Jaefar Nikbakht & P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, 2012. "Identification of Trend in Reference Evapotranspiration Series with Serial Dependence in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2219-2232, June.
    2. Hüseyin Yavuz & Saffet Erdoğan, 2012. "Spatial Analysis of Monthly and Annual Precipitation Trends in Turkey," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(3), pages 609-621, February.
    3. Hong Wu & Leen-Kiat Soh & Ashok Samal & Xun-Hong Chen, 2008. "Trend Analysis of Streamflow Drought Events in Nebraska," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(2), pages 145-164, February.
    4. Mojtaba Shadmani & Safar Marofi & Majid Roknian, 2012. "Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 211-224, January.
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    2. Kadri Yurekli, 2023. "Identification of possible risks to hydrological design under non-stationary climate conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 517-536, March.
    3. Zhou, Zhigao & Wang, Lunche & Lin, Aiwen & Zhang, Ming & Niu, Zigeng, 2018. "Innovative trend analysis of solar radiation in China during 1962–2015," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 675-689.
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    5. Bosch, Jonathan & Staffell, Iain & Hawkes, Adam D., 2017. "Temporally-explicit and spatially-resolved global onshore wind energy potentials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 207-217.

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